Magazine
January 2024
PitNews
Your Trusted Source for Trading Intelligence: www.PitNews.com
Claire Kristensen Wall Streets Puppet Masters: Market Manipulation
Aiden Gray The Hidden World of Prop Firms: Fact or Fiction?
The Hidden World of Prop Firms: Separating Fact From Fiction by Aiden Gray: Page 39 Take a deep dive into the world of proprietary trading firms, dissecting the alluring yet often misleading promises of financial freedom. It provides valuable insights and warnings, guiding traders through the complex landscape of prop firms to distinguish between genuine prospects and deceptive traps.
The Puppet Masters of Wall Street: Unmasking the Art of Market Manipulation by Claire Kristensen Page 14 Unveil the complex world of market manipulation, how large players like hedge funds and banks can influence the market, often to the detriment of retail traders, specifically breaking down the "pump 'n dump" strategy, offering insights into the mechanics, to equip traders with the knowledge to identify and navigate these deceptive market maneuvers.
The Trend is Your Friend Until it Bends or Ends by Lan Turner: Page 5 The article introduces trend following as a disciplined and simple trading strategy, focusing on its rule-based approach. It is positioned as a reliable alternative to the high-stress and often unsuccessful attempts at predicting market reversals.
Big Macs & Beyond: Exploring the Impact on Stocks, Futures and Bonds by Dr. Scott Brown Page 24 Explores the Big Mac Index, a unique economic indicator that uses the price of McDonald's Big Macs globally to understand purchasing power parity and inflation trends. It explains how this seemingly simple measure provides insights into currency value discrepancies and broader economic principles affecting stock and futures markets.
Navigating the Profit Box: The Art and Strategy of Scalp ‘n Trail by Lan Turner Page 29 Navigating the 'Profit Box,' a metaphorical zone bounded by the entry and exit points in trading, highlighting the challenges and strategies for maximizing gains within this space. It discusses the limitations of relying solely on lagging indicators and emphasizes the need for a nuanced approach to effectively manage the narrow window of opportunity.
Table of Contents: Your Guide to Mastering the Markets
January 2024
Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
January 2024
Dear Valued Subscribers, As we turn the page to a new year, I want to extend a heartfelt thank you for your continued support of PitNews Magazine. Your engagement and enthusiasm are what drive us to deliver insightful and practical content each month. As we step into January, a time of fresh beginnings and renewed aspirations, we wish you prosperity, success, and, most importantly, good health in the year ahead. This month's issue is particularly special, as it encapsulates a diverse range of topics that are not only informative but also thought-provoking. Here's a glimpse of what you'll find inside: 1. "The Trend is your friend until it bends or ends," by Lan Turner: An enlightening exploration of trend following and its critical role in successful trading strategies. 2. "The Puppet Masters of Wall Street: Unmasking the Art of Market Manipulation," by Claire Kristensen: A revealing look into the tactics of market manipulation, providing crucial knowledge for navigating these deceptive strategies. 3. "Big Macs & Beyond: Exploring the Impact on Stocks, Futures, and Bonds," by Dr. Scott Brown: Dr. Brown's expert analysis of how the Big Mac Index reflects broader economic principles and their influence on financial markets. 4. "Navigating the Profit Box: The Art and Strategy of Scalp 'n Trail," by Lan Turner, where we dive into the 'Profit Box' concept, offering strategies for optimizing profit potential in trading. 5. "The Hidden World of Prop Firms: Separating Fact from Fiction," by Aiden Gray: Aiden guides us through the complexities of proprietary trading firms, helping to distinguish between genuine opportunities and potential scams. Each article has been crafted with the aim of enriching your understanding and enhancing your trading strategies. As we continue to navigate the ever-evolving world of finance, our commitment to bringing you the most relevant and insightful content remains unwavering. Thank you once again for being a part of our PitNews family. Here's to a prosperous and insightful 2024! Warm regards, Lan Turner, Editor-in-Chief PitNews Magazine
Editor's Notes: January
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In the heart of the city, where the tall towers gleam, Lies the bustling world of the trading stream. Where numbers dance, and fortunes rise, Under the watchful gaze of winter skies. In this realm of dreams, where traders tread, New Year's resolutions are silently said. "Buy low, sell high," the age-old creed, In the New Year's promise, we find our lead. Gideon P. Thornfield, a trader of note, With a lucky tie and a well-tailored coat, Stood at the stroke of midnight, his eyes alight, Ready for a year of markets, bold and bright. "Let's toast," he said, "to the trades we'll make, To the risks we'll dare and the chances we'll take. To the bulls that charge with unstoppable force, And to the bears, of course, who plot their course. May our portfolios grow, our spirits never tire, As we chase the dreams that our hearts desire. May the market's waves, both fierce and fair, Bring us fortune, in the bull's lair. So here's to the New Year, fresh and new, Full of opportunities, for me and you. In the dance of digits, let's find our stride, In this grand adventure, let's enjoy the ride. With a clink of glasses and a hopeful cheer, They welcomed the start of the trading year. For in this world, where fortunes are spun, A new year of trading has just begun.
A Trader's New Year's Tale by Gideon P. Thornfield
Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
by Lan Turner The Perils of Chasing Perfection in Trading Last summer, while visiting the sunny beaches of California, I recall watching surfers take on the powerful waves. As I dug my toes into the warm sand, I was particularly drawn to one surfer who sat on his board, waiting. He seemed to be waiting with a great sense of anticipation for the perfect wave, letting each smaller wave pass him by. At that moment, I noticed a remarkable similarity to my initial days in the financial markets.
Back when I first dug my toes into the world of trading, I was that surfer. I spent hours, days, even weeks trying to predict that one perfect trend—that exact point where the market would reverse. It was an elusive goal, much like catching the perfect wave. My focus was so narrow, so fixated on this single move, that I often missed out on the more consistent and less risky opportunities that were right there in front of me. These were the steady, more forgiving waves that could have made for a smoother, though perhaps less exciting, ride; the ones that were more consistent and forgiving.
The Trend is Your Friend: Until it Bends or Ends
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
I learned the hard way that in trading, as in surfing, it's not always about the glory of riding the biggest wave. Sometimes, it's about recognizing and embracing the smaller, more manageable ones that can still take you a long way. These less dramatic opportunities, which I initially overlooked in my pursuit of a grand reversal, were the ones that steadily built my confidence and skill as a trader. This realization came to me over time, as I watched the ocean and its surfers with a newfound understanding. I began to see the financial markets through the lens of the ocean—unpredictable, powerful, but also full of opportunities, big and small. It was a lesson in humility and patience, one that taught me to broaden my view and appreciate the consistent rhythms of the market, much like the steady flow of the ocean waves. In the world of trading, the debate between trend following and trend reversal strategies is a longstanding one. New traders, lured by the allure of 'big wins,' often gravitate towards predicting trend reversals. The idea of entering at the lowest point and exiting at the peak is enticing, but it's fraught with challenges and risks. In contrast, trend following - the practice of identifying and riding a trend - offers a more pragmatic approach, especially for those just starting out. This article explores why "the trend is your friend" isn't just a catchy phrase, but a fundamental trading principle that can guide new traders towards more sustainable success. The Fallacy of Trend Reversal Trading The allure of trend reversal trading lies in its perceived potential for massive gains. New traders often envision themselves as the few who can accurately predict the top or bottom of a market, buying low and selling high with precision. This aspiration, however, overlooks the inherent complexity and unpredictability of financial markets.
Trend reversals are rare and difficult to forecast because they are influenced by a myriad of factors, including economic indicators, market sentiment, and global events, many of which are unpredictable or even unknown to the average trader. Moreover, the market's momentum tends to persist. A trend in motion is more likely to continue than to reverse abruptly. By aiming for trend reversals, traders often find themselves fighting against the market's natural flow, a strategy that not only requires great skill and experience but also exposes them to higher risks and potential losses. Predicting Market Reversals I recall a period early in my trading career when I was fixated on predicting market reversals. In one instance, I was confident that a certain stock, which had been on a steady decline, was due for a rebound. I invested a significant portion of my portfolio, expecting a quick turnaround. Instead, the stock continued to plummet. This experience taught me a valuable lesson about the risks of reversal trading. It's not just about the potential financial loss; it's the psychological impact of repeatedly being on the wrong side of the market movement. The frustration and self-doubt that comes after are often far more damaging than the monetary loss. This experience, which I might add, unfortunately, has happened to me way more than I’d like to admit. It highlights the inherent risks and emotional toll of trying to capture trend reversals, a lesson that has now steered me towards the more reliable and less stressful strategy of trend following. Trend Following: The Power of a Rule-Based Approach Trend following is a strategy grounded in discipline and simplicity, which revolves around three rules:
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1. Wait for a Trend to Begin: The first step is the most crucial - identifying when a trend has started. This involves monitoring market movements and indicators to detect a consistent upward or downward trajectory. It's about patience and resisting the urge to jump in prematurely. 2. Jump on the Trend: Once a trend is established, the next rule is to make your move. This doesn't mean entering at any point; it involves waiting for a strategic entry moment that aligns with the trend's direction. It's about timing, not just action. 3. Take Profits as Markets Rally: Knowing when to exit is as important as knowing when to enter. Setting profit targets or using trailing stops ensures that gains are realized before the trend potentially reverses or loses momentum. It's about safeguarding gains, not just accumulating them.
Bulls 'n Bears Indicator A crucial tool in the arsenal of a trend follower is the Bulls 'n Bears indicator. This color-coded system simplifies market analysis: Green Price Bars: Indicate a bullish market. When the bars turn green, it signals an upward trend, suggesting a buying opportunity. Yellow Price Bars: Represent a neutral market. Yellow bars indicate a period of consolidation or indecision, suggesting caution. o The yellow bars represent the Fibonacci neutral zone between 38.2 and 61.8. Red Price Bars: Signify a bearish market. Red bars indicate a downward trend, pointing towards a selling opportunity or avoidance of long positions.
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ABCD Patterns A buy/sell signal entry strategy after a two/three bar pull back. (Flagging)
Pattern, Setup & Trigger Recognition
Bullish
Bearish
Buy
Add
Sell
Add
Pennant/Flag
Pennant/Flag
A
B
C
D
D
A
B
C
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By utilizing the Bulls 'n Bears indicator, traders can visually assess market conditions, helping them to identify trends early and make informed decisions on entries and exits. This tool simplifies the process, making trend following more accessible, especially for new traders. Risks of Misguided Strategies: Statistics/Data While comprehensive data on individual trading outcomes is scarce due to the private nature of trading accounts, various studies and broker reports have suggested that a high percentage of new traders incur losses; it’s said to be as high as 80%. For instance, a report by a major brokerage firm revealed that over 70% of new traders who focused on reversal strategies ended up losing more than half of their capital within the first year.
These statistics highlight the high-risk nature of trying to predict market turns, especially for those lacking in-depth experience and a robust risk management framework. Balanced View It's essential to recognize that all trading strategies, including trend following, come with inherent risks. No strategy is foolproof. However, the key difference lies in the approach and execution. Trend reversal trading, while potentially lucrative, often requires a deep understanding of market dynamics, the ability to interpret complex signals, and, importantly, the capacity to absorb significant losses. On the other hand, trend following, with its rules- based approach, provides a more structured and less
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Accumulation & Distribution The market “Chops” lower then breaks up.
Trend
Add
Accumulation Stage (Choppy)
Distribution Stage (Smooth)
CMF Indicator
Accumulation Stage (Choppy)
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emotionally taxing path, especially for new traders. It's about riding the momentum, not predicting the market's next move. This strategy does not eliminate risks but rather manages them more effectively through clear entry and exit rules, and the use of tools like the Bulls 'n Bears indicator. Technical Analysis: Identifying Entry Points Classic chart formations like wedges, triangles, flags, and pennants. These formations are pivotal in technical analysis, serving as visual cues for identifying potential entry points in a trending market. Wedge Formations: These appear as narrowing price ranges, signaling a potential breakout. A rising wedge in a downtrend or a falling wedge in an uptrend often precedes a continuation of the trend. Triangle Patterns: These are seen as converging trend lines and can be symmetrical, ascending, or descending. They indicate a consolidation phase, with a breakout typically signaling trend continuation. Flags and Pennants: Short, sharp price movements followed by a slight, rectangular (flag) or triangular (pennant) consolidation. A breakout from these patterns usually suggests a strong move in the direction of the prevailing trend. Technical Explanation These chart formations are key in identifying opportune moments to enter a trend. Here's how they signal entry points: Breakout Confirmation: In each of these patterns, traders look for a breakout - a decisive move out of the pattern, confirming trend
continuation. For instance, a breakout above a triangle's upper trendline in an uptrend suggests a strong entry point for a long position.
January 2024
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Volume and Momentum Indicators: Alongside these patterns, traders often use volume and momentum indicators to validate the breakout. Increased volume and strong momentum readings during a breakout lend credence to the continuation of the trend. Risk Management: Entry points based on these patterns should always be coupled with sound risk management strategies, like setting stop-loss orders just outside the pattern. This helps in mitigating potential losses if the breakout doesn't lead to trend continuation. Incorporating these chart formations into trend- following strategies offers a structured approach to identifying entry points. It's not about predicting the next market move, but about recognizing and acting on established patterns that historically have indicated favorable entry moments. Embracing a Trend-Following Mindset This article has explored the vital distinction between trend following and trend reversal strategies in trading. While the lure of capturing a trend reversal is understandable, it's fraught with high risks and requires a level of expertise and market
understanding that is challenging for new traders. On the other hand, trend following offers a more structured and manageable approach. By adhering to the three rules of trend following—waiting for the trend to begin, jumping on the trend, and taking profits at the right time—traders can navigate the markets more effectively. Tools like the Bulls 'n Bears indicator simplify this process, providing clear visual cues for market trends. As traders, especially those new to the markets, it's imperative to focus on strategies that align with your skill level, risk tolerance, and psychological makeup. Embracing a trend-following mindset does not guarantee success, but it does provide a framework for making informed, disciplined decisions. The key is continuous learning and adapting. I encourage readers to dive deeper into the world of technical analysis, exploring various market indicators and chart patterns. Experiment with simulated trades to gain experience and confidence. Remember, in trading, there is no one-size-fits-all strategy. The journey to becoming a successful trader is personal and unique, but it always starts with a solid foundation and a commitment to learning and growth.
Bulls ‘n Bears: Working in combination with other tools, such as the CMF, traders use the Bulls ‘n Bears to provide a visionary look at a markets bullish, bearish and neutral accumulation levels.
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January 2024
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Glossary 1. Trend Following: A trading strategy that involves identifying and taking positions in the direction of prevailing market trends. It's characterized by patience in waiting for a trend to establish and then capitalizing on it until signs of reversal appear. 2. Trend Reversal Trading: A strategy that attempts to predict points where the market's existing trend will change direction. It's often associated with high risk and requires significant skill and experience. 3. Market Momentum: The concept refers to the strength or speed of a market trend. In trading, momentum strategies aim to capitalize on the continuation of existing trends in the market. 4. Volume Indicators: Tools used in technical analysis to understand the trading activity of a stock or market. Volume can help confirm trends and signal the strength of a particular price movement. 5. Momentum Indicators: These are technical tools used to assess the speed or rate of change in the prices of a market. They help traders identify overbought or oversold conditions. 6. Risk Management: The process of identifying, assessing, and controlling threats to a trader's capital and earnings. It includes setting stop-loss orders and managing position sizes. 7. Psychological Impact of Trading: Refers to the emotional aspects of trading, such as the stress, excitement, or frustration that can influence decision-making.
8. Economic Indicators: Statistics and data used to gauge the overall health of the economy, which can significantly influence market trends and trading strategies. 9. Market Sentiment: The overall attitude of investors towards a particular market or asset. It's a significant driver of market trends and a key consideration in both trend following and reversal strategies. 10. Stop-Loss Order: An order placed with a broker to buy or sell once the stock reaches a certain price. It's designed to limit an investor's loss on a trading position. 11. Trailing Stops: A type of stop-loss order that moves with the market price and is designed to protect gains by enabling a trade to remain open and continue to profit as long as the price is moving in the trader's favor. 12. Fibonacci Neutral Zone: A range within Fibonacci retracement levels (specifically between 38.2% and 61.8%) that signals a neutral market condition. Lan Turner teaches finance at Utah Tech University, and is the editor-in-chief of PitNews Magazine.
PITNEWS MAGAZINE www.PitNews.com
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January 2024
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Add To Cart Amazon
The Fibonacci Effect
Now on Amazon!
Lan Turner’s Stock Market Playbook of Strategies
Search Lan H Turner on Amazon Amazon.com
Gain Discipline and Courage Through Knowledge & Strategy. A 238-page workbook. Your manual to the stocks, futures, and options markets.
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Across 5. Author of Hidden World of Prop Firms? 7. Author of Wall Streets Puppet Masters? 8. Author of The Trend is Your Friend? 10. The state where Claire lives? 11. What trades at the CBOT? 12. Where Dr. Scott Brown lives?
Down 1. Author of Big Macs & Beyond? 2. Where stocks are traded? 3. The state where Aiden Gray lives? 4. Who are the Puppet Masters? 6. The state where Lan lives? 9. City of the CME?
January 2024
Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
The Puppet Masters of Wall Street: Unmasking the Art of Market Manipulation
by Claire Kristensen In the world of finance, knowledge is power, but what if the game is rigged from the start? Welcome to the intricate maze of market manipulation, a realm where large speculators like hedge funds and big banks pull the strings, and retail traders often find themselves dancing to a tune they didn't choose. Understanding the tactics used to manipulate the market is not just a skill; it's a necessity for survival in this high-stakes environment. One of the most telling signs of market manipulation is a recurring price pattern that can be best described as a "pump 'n dump" strategy. This pattern is like a siren's song, luring in unsuspecting traders with the promise of high returns, only to leave them stranded when the tide turns. By the end
of this article, you'll not only be able to identify this deceptive pattern but also understand the mechanics behind it, empowering you to navigate the treacherous waters of market manipulation. The Pump 'n Dump Strategy In the trading lexicon, the term "pump 'n dump" has gained notoriety for being a manipulative tactic that plays out like a well-orchestrated drama. Picture this: the market starts to rally, showing strong bullish trends after a period of sluggish movement. If you're using Heiken-Ashi bars, you'll notice a series of flat-bottom green bars, often spanning four to eight bars, painting a picture of a market ripe for the picking. This sudden surge is the "pump," and it's
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designed to set off every alarm bell on traders' market scanners. It's like a flare shot into the night sky, impossible to ignore and incredibly enticing. Now, who's behind this grand spectacle? Enter the large banks and hedge funds, the puppet masters of this strategy. Their objective is simple yet cunning: to attract as many eyeballs and, consequently, as much trading volume as possible. Remember, trading is a zero-sum game. For every buyer, there needs to be a seller, and vice versa. These large speculators need retail traders to sell to them when they want to buy and to buy from them when they want to sell. The pump serves as the bait, luring in small speculators who think they're about to ride a bullish wave to riches. The pump 'n dump is not just a random occurrence; it's a calculated move by these financial giants. They know that the sudden uptick in market activity will draw traders like moths to a flame. And once they've got enough people on the hook, they're ready for the next phase of their strategy, which we'll delve into shortly.
By understanding the mechanics of the pump 'n dump, you're not just learning to identify a pattern; you're peeling back the curtain on how large financial institutions operate in the shadows, manipulating market conditions to serve their interests. The Wyckoff Spring In the grand theater of market manipulation, the Wyckoff Spring is the plot twist that even seasoned traders often fail to anticipate. Named after Richard Wyckoff, a pioneer in the study of market behavior, the Wyckoff Spring is a technical pattern that serves as the linchpin in the large speculators' strategy. It's the moment when the curtain lifts, revealing the true intentions of the market's puppet masters—large banks and hedge funds. Imagine you've just witnessed the pump, that bullish surge that had you and countless other traders excitedly entering the market. Now, suddenly, the market takes a nosedive, plummeting back down to test the lows of the initial pump. Often, it will even
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break below those lows. This is the Wyckoff Spring in action, and it's where the large speculators start accumulating their positions. They're buying up shares or contracts at rock-bottom prices, often signaled by large volume spikes. It's like a clearance sale for them, and they're filling their carts. Now, what about the retail traders who got caught in this whirlwind? This is where the trap snaps shut. As the market tumbles, panic sets in. Retail traders start to bail, selling off their positions in a frantic bid to cut their losses. They're jumping ship just as the large speculators wanted them to, providing these financial giants with the liquidity they need to accumulate massive positions at bargain prices. It's a classic case of the big fish eating the small fish.
The Wyckoff Spring is not just a point of accumulation for large speculators; it's a well-laid trap designed to shake out retail traders. Those who fall for it find themselves selling at the worst possible time, right when the large players are buying. It's a harsh lesson in market dynamics, teaching traders that what goes up can come crashing down, especially when large speculators are pulling the strings. The Real Pump After the dust settles from the Wyckoff Spring, the stage is set for the grand finale—the real pump. If the initial pump was the opening act, a mere sleight of hand to divert your attention, then the real pump is the main event. It's the moment when large
Accumulation Phase Unveiled: Contrasting the market's bullish sentiment, the declining CMF values on this chart reveal the accumulation of the big players, warning of a possible forthcoming rise.
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speculators, now armed with a colossal position built during the fake-out, prepare to make their killing. Picture this: The market suddenly springs back to life, and this time, it's not a mirage. Large Heiken- Ashi bars with pristine flat bottoms start to populate the chart. It's as if the market has been given a shot of adrenaline, and it's racing upward with a newfound vigor. Retail traders, still nursing their wounds from the earlier fake-out, see this as a second chance. Like moths to a flame, they swarm back into the market, buying into what they believe will be a monumental uptrend. And this time, they're not wrong; the market does soar. But there's a catch.
Here's the twist: As retail traders buy into the rising market, the large speculators begin to unload their massive positions. They're selling into the buying frenzy, offloading their shares or contracts at premium prices. It's a masterstroke, a coup de maître. They've not only managed to buy low during the Wyckoff Spring but are now selling high during the real pump. The profits are astronomical, and they've managed to play both sides of the market to perfection once again. The real pump is the crescendo in this orchestrated symphony of market manipulation. It's where large speculators cash in on their well-executed strategy, leaving retail traders to wonder how they got played—again. The irony is that the retail traders are
Rising Accumulation Stage: As the market dips, we notice a dip in the CMF indicator, suggesting that large players are building positions and setting the stage for a potential flush.
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not entirely wrong; the market did make a significant move. But it's the large speculators who reap the lion's share of the profits, having manipulated the market to serve their ends at every turn. This is the harsh reality of trading in a market where large speculators hold the reins. They set the tempo, and if you're not careful, you'll find yourself dancing to their tune, often to your detriment. The Role of the CMF Indicator In this intricate game of cat and mouse between large speculators and retail traders, one might wonder if there's a way to level the playing field.
Enter the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) indicator, a tool that can serve as your radar in the murky waters of market manipulation. Named after its creator, Marc Chaikin, the CMF indicator is designed to reveal the market's hidden currents—specifically, the phases of accumulation and distribution that large speculators so skillfully navigate. Imagine the CMF as a gauge that measures the pulse of the market. When the indicator shows a negative value, it's a sign that the market is in an accumulation phase. This is where large speculators are quietly building their positions, often at the expense of retail traders. On the flip side, a positive value on the CMF indicates a distribution phase. This
Accumulation Phase Identified: This chart shows a period of quiet accumulation, as evidenced by the subtle yet sustained decrease in the CMF indicator, hinting at the stealthy buying activity of large speculators before a market rally.
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is the moment when large speculators are offloading their holdings, usually into the eager hands of retail traders who are buying into what they believe is an uptrend. The beauty of the CMF indicator lies in its simplicity. It cuts through the noise and shows you what's really happening beneath the surface. By keeping an eye on the CMF, you can get a sense of when large speculators are likely accumulating or distributing their positions. This knowledge can be invaluable, allowing you to align your trading strategy with the market's true movers and shakers, rather than getting caught in their traps. So, how can you use the CMF to your advantage? When you see the CMF trending downwards during a market pullback, it could be a sign that large
speculators are accumulating. This is your cue to consider entering the market, but with caution and proper risk management. Conversely, if the CMF is trending upwards during a market rally, be wary. The big players might be distributing, and the so- called uptrend could be a facade. In essence, the CMF indicator serves as your compass, helping you navigate the treacherous yet potentially rewarding landscape of market manipulation. By understanding the phases of accumulation and distribution, you can trade more strategically, sidestepping the pitfalls that ensnare many retail traders. The Language of the Market In the world of trading, knowledge is power, but perspective is everything. While retail traders often
Choppy Reaccumulation: This chart captures the explosive growth potential (Distribution) after a choppy accumulation stage, where large speculators begin to accumulate in anticipation of a sell-off.
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view the market through the lens of indicators, charts, and news, the real puppet masters—large hedge funds and banks—see it as a playground for their strategic maneuvers. Understanding the market from their vantage point isn't just an exercise in empathy; it's a crucial strategy for survival and success. Think of the market as a grand chessboard. In this high-stakes game, large hedge funds are the grandmasters, always several moves ahead. They don't react to the market; they create the market conditions that cause reactions. If you want to elevate your trading game, you need to start thinking like them. But how can you adopt the mindset of a large hedge fund manager?
Here are some tips to help you think like a large hedge fund manager: 1. Look for Volume: Large players can't hide their tracks; they leave clues in the form of trading volume. High volume during a market move can indicate their involvement. a. Always remember that large speculators need liquidity to execute their strategies. They need sellers when they're buying and buyers when they're selling. Your first clue to their intentions often lies in sudden, unexplained market movements. These are not random events; they're carefully orchestrated to attract attention and generate liquidity.
Post-Pump CMF Downtrend: Here, the CMF indicator begins to fall despite continued choppy upward market movement, signaling that the rally might be on borrowed time, with large speculators exiting their positions.
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2. Understand Market Psychology: Large speculators know how to exploit emotions like fear and greed. Be aware of your own emotional triggers and try to stay neutral. a. Be skeptical of market 'noise.' Large hedge funds are masters of deception. They'll pump up a stock to lure you in, only to pull the rug from under you once they've accumulated enough shares. Always question the motive behind a sudden price movement. Is it a genuine trend or a trap? 3. Follow the Money: Use indicators like the CMF to identify where the money is flowing. Is it an accumulation or distribution phase? Adjust your strategy accordingly. a. Use tools that give you insights into their activities. We've already discussed the Chaikin Money Flow indicator, but there are others like the Volume Profile, Bulls ‘n Bears, MACD, Stochastics, and RSI that can provide valuable clues. 4. Be Patient: Large hedge funds don't make impulsive moves. They plan and execute their strategies over longer time frames. Don't rush into trades; let the opportunities come to you. a. Practice patience and discipline. Large hedge funds don't jump on every opportunity; they wait for the perfect setup that aligns with their strategy. Adopt a similar approach. Wait for confirmations, manage your risks, and most importantly, stick to your trading plan. 5. Risk Management: This is a cornerstone of any successful trading strategy, but it's especially crucial when you're trying to navigate a market that's being manipulated. Always have a clear exit strategy. By understanding the language of the market from the perspective of its most influential players, you're not just leveling the playing field; you're turning it in your favor. The Other Side of the Coin: When Even Giants Stumble It's crucial to acknowledge that even the titans of trading—the large banks and hedge funds—are not infallible. There are instances where their well-
calculated strategies backfire. They may pump the market, accumulate a significant number of shares, and aim for another market run, only to find that the retail traders they rely on aren't biting the bait this time. In such scenarios, even these large institutions can get caught holding the bag, stuck with positions they can't offload at a profit. This serves as a stark reminder that no strategy is foolproof, not even those employed by the market's most influential players. Risk Management: Your Safety Net Given this reality, it's imperative to exercise good judgment and employ robust risk management strategies. Protective stops are not just optional; they are essential. They serve as your safety net, minimizing losses when even the most promising of strategies fail, whether you're a retail trader or a large institution. Conclusion In the intricate dance of the financial markets, understanding the choreography of large speculators is not just a skill; it's a necessity. From the deceptive allure of the pump 'n dump to the cunning trap of the Wyckoff Spring, the market is rife with strategies designed to lure retail traders into positions that ultimately benefit the big players. But as we've journeyed through the dark arts of market manipulation, I hope you've gleaned that you're far from powerless. The key to not just surviving but thriving in this environment is awareness. By recognizing the signs of manipulation and understanding the strategies employed by large banks and hedge funds, you can turn what seems like a rigged game to your advantage. Tools like the CMF indicator can serve as your compass, helping you navigate the treacherous waters of accumulation and distribution phases. And by adopting the mindset of a large hedge fund manager, you can elevate your trading strategy from reactive to proactive.
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
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So, as you go forth in your trading endeavors, I encourage you to apply this newfound knowledge. Don't just be another pawn in the market; be a player who understands the rules of the game and knows when to make the right moves. Equip yourself with the tools and mindset to not just identify but capitalize on the market's manipulative tactics. Remember, the market speaks a language, and it's one that you can learn. By doing so, you're not just trading; you're trading smartly, strategically, and with the kind of insight that can transform your financial future. Claire Kristensen is a part time futures trader and stock investor living in Las Vegas Nevada. She’s a member of Lan Turner’s President’s Club, and a contributing writer to PitNews Magazine.
In the intricate dance of the financial markets, understanding the choreography of large speculators is not just a skill; it's a necessity. -- Claire Kristensen
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By Scott Brown, Ph.D. The Big Mac Index reflects broader economic principles around inflation and purchasing power that directly impact stock and futures markets. Published by The Economist since 1986, it compares the prices of McDonald's signature burgers across countries as an informal measure of purchasing power parity (PPP) between currencies. At its core, the index is built on the theory that exchange rates should equalize the cost of an identical basket of goods internationally. This connects to inflation—as prices and currencies fluctuate over time, inflation rises when a currency
depreciates relative to the goods and services it can buy. The Big Mac's near-universal availability and standardization makes it a useful proxy for overall consumer pricing. Tracking the index highlights discrepancies between currencies' implied and actual exchange rates. Currencies overvalued per the Big Mac have greater purchasing power parity than currency exchanges indicate, while undervalued currencies have lower comparative purchasing power. As an internationally ubiquitous product, it reflects the inputs that drive broader inflation in a given
Big Macs & Beyond: Exploring the Impact on Stocks, Futures and Bonds
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
economy—ingredient prices, labor costs, rent, advertising expenses. These forces directly shape corporations' fundamentals and impact share prices. Rising inflation and input costs pressure profit margins, lowering earnings potentials and typically stock valuations. However, the level of inflation that maximizes stock returns varies historically and across sectors. Additionally, attempts by central banks worldwide to curb rising consumer prices through interest rate hikes deliberately slow economic growth—with mixed impacts on equities. The futures market provides tools for investors to hedge risks and speculate on inflation's trajectory. Inflation-linked bond futures allow traders to bet on inflation-adjusted returns and offer information on real interest rates. Stock index futures track benchmarks responding to inflation and can protect against or take advantage of price declines. Commodity futures like agricultural goods reflect rising input costs facing firms.
So while originally semi-humorous, the humble Big Mac Index encapsulates powerful monetary dynamics. Tracking its national fluctuations provides insights into inflation, currency valuations, and purchasing power shifts with profound implications for global equities, bonds, and futures. The costs of ingredients, labor, and real estate driving modest fast food pricing offer surprising utility for modeling broad economic trends, risks, and opportunities. Why Is Lee Massachusetts Home to the Most Expensive Big Mac in America? A photo recently went viral on Reddit showing a McDonald's menu with a Big Mac meal priced at $7.59, reportedly the highest in the nation. While fast food lovers gawked at the costly burger, it prompted questions about the reasons for vastly different franchise pricing across the country. McDonald's states that pricing is determined at the restaurant level by franchisees and can shift depending on location. The same goes for chains like Burger King and Dunkin'. Under Massachusetts law, businesses can set prices as they see fit as long as they properly advertise the correct amounts. Franchise consultants point to an array of factors owners weigh when calculating costs. “For pricing structure in a restaurant, you have basic food cost, cost of goods sold, which includes labor,” said John Adams, who has held various roles assisting Domino’s franchisees in New York. “These are used to determine the price of a product that's being sold." Mr. Adams explains that food costs are typically marked up between 2.5 to 5 times for menu items. So while standards around ingredients and preparation exist for franchises, pricing tends to vary. He cites differences in regional expenses as the main
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
reason the Big Mac named after Massachusetts sells for almost $8, far above the national average of $5.35. “The pricing is directly related to the cost of the product that they're selling,” Mr. Adams said. “Leasing costs play the largest role in pricing.” The adage in real estate applies to fast food too — location dictates price. A roadside McDonald's off the Mass Pike in the rural town of Lee faces substantially lower overheads than city spots. So while the taste of a Big Mac might hold universal, its monetary value proves anything but. The Reddit post showcasing a $7.59 Big Mac meal can be seen as an attempt to exaggerate the extent
of inflation, attributing a broader significance to a singular data point. By emphasizing the price and claiming it as the "highest in the nation," the post implies a widespread issue, fostering the perception that inflation significantly impacts fast-food prices. The use of the term "viral" further amplifies the post's reach, contributing to its credibility. However, the lack of contextual information, such as regional factors or franchisee decisions, undermines the post's validity. Ultimately, the consumer reactions fueled by emotional responses on social media may reinforce an exaggerated narrative about inflation, highlighting the importance of individual responsibility in critically evaluating and reasoning through news and information.
Figure 1: Global Appetite, Local Prices: Mapping the Average Cost of a Big Mac Around the World
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
The Psychology of Economic Pessimism: Why Good News Falls on Deaf Ears This attempt to stir outrage on social media taps into the persistent gap between public economic perceptions and reality. Despite clear evidence of moderating inflation, many citizens believe the economy remains dire. Nobel Laureate Krugman argues this reveals how partisanship can outweigh facts in shaping sentiments. With unemployment nearing record lows, surveys showing negative views, particularly among Democrats, suggest partisan identity is driving opinions more than personal finances. Additionally, the heavy focus by the media on economic troubles despite positive indicators contributes to this disconnect. Ultimately, the notion that people's perceptions closely align with their actual economic experiences is challenged. Many seem unwilling to acknowledge moderating prices, clinging to inflation as a defining economic issue regardless of the data. In Krugman's view, this affliction of disinflation sits squarely at the intersection of partisan politics, media coverage, and the human tendency to emphasize the negative over the positive. The result is an unwarranted sense of pessimism impervious to genuinely encouraging developments. - Dr. Scott Brown Editor’s Note: As we wrap up this discussion on economic perceptions and the factors influencing them, I encourage you to dive even deeper into the world of economic analysis with Dr. Scott Brown. You can explore Dr. Brown’s books and courses online at: www.DrScottBrown.com.
Expand your knowledge and understanding by exploring Wealth By Design, available at https://linktr.ee/scottbrownphd. Dr. Brown's expertise provides valuable insights that can empower you to navigate the complexities of the economy and make informed decisions. Take the next step in your learning journey to gain a deeper appreciation of economic dynamics. Your journey to economic enlightenment begins with a single click – don't miss out on this opportunity to enhance your understanding and to stay informed.
Dr. Brown’s Book: Wealth By Design, with Co- Author Daniel Hall
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Trade LIVE With Lan Turner Unlock the Secrets of Day Trading with Real-Time Strategies and Insights
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by Lan Turner As a traders, we’re gripped by the elusive nature of profits in the financial markets. There's an old saying that resonates with me: "Profits are a trader's best friend, yet they're as elusive as a shadow." This perfectly sums up the allure and challenge of securing profits in the ever-shifting landscape of trading. In my experience, one concept that stands out in this pursuit is the "Profit Box." The Profit Box is a metaphorical space defined by the entry and exit points of a trade. It's generally shaped by the use of mathematical models and technical indicators; essentially, it represents the limited profit zone we traders navigate. It's like being in a race where you're constantly trying to
Navigating the Profit Box: The Art and Strategy of Scalp ‘n Trail
catch up – entering a bit too late and exiting a bit too soon. This space, the Profit Box, is a double- edged sword: it offers the potential for gain, but also poses the risk of reduced returns due to these late entries and early exits. Through my many years as a trader, I've realized how crucial it is to understand this concept. Relying solely on lagging indicators such as Parabolic SAR, ATR, or moving averages can often lead to missed opportunities. These tools are valuable, but they tend to signal entry or exit points after the market has already started its move. This delay in entry is what creates the Profit Box dilemma – a narrowed window for potential profits.
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In this article, I'll take you through my own strategies and insights into maximizing gains within the constraints of the Profit Box. It's a fine line between risk and reward, and navigating it successfully requires not just skill, but a deep understanding of the market's nuances. For traders like us, turning the elusive shadow of profits into a tangible reality is not just about the numbers; it's about understanding the rhythm and flow of the markets. Let's explore together how to master this art form in the world of trading. Understanding the Profit Box; Definition and Explanation of the Profit Box At its core, the Profit Box is a trading concept that encapsulates the potential profit zone bounded by the points of entry and exit in a trade. This zone is directly influenced by the time delay inherent in
using technical indicators, which often results in a trader entering the market after a trend has started and exiting once the trend has begun to reverse. This delayed reaction shrinks the potential profit window, thus creating what we refer to as the "Profit Box." The Profit Box isn't just a theoretical construct; it's a practical reality that impacts every trade. It's where the theoretical maximum profit, as predicted by models and indicators, meets the practical limitations of real-world trading. Lagging Indicators Create the Profit Box Lagging indicators play a pivotal role in the formation of the Profit Box. These indicators, such as the Moving Average, Parabolic SAR (Stop and Reverse), and Average True Range (ATR), are designed to confirm trends based on historical data.
Enter Long On Break Above Blue Lights Exit On Break Below Blue Lights Profit Box $100 Trend Box $300 Dessert Hors d’oeuvres Meat&Potatoes RSI / STO / CCI January 2024
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The Profit Box: The Profit Box is the small area of opportunity between where you enter the market and where you exit. Pre-box is the Hors d’oeuvres, while the post box is our dessert.
Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
However, the very nature of relying on past data means that these indicators inherently lag behind, as they require real-time market movements to make their predictions. When a lagging indicator signals an entry point, the market may have already moved significantly, meaning the trader misses out on the initial profit opportunity. Similarly, exit signals may come too late, leaving the trader clinging to a diminishing profit or, in worse cases, facing a reversal into loss territory. Therefore, the Profit Box is the time that the trader has to maximize gains within a constrained environment, which is formed by the lag time between the entry and exit points.
Moving Average Profit Box in Action To bring the concept of the Profit Box to life, consider the scenario of a trader using a simple moving average crossover strategy. When the short- term moving average crosses above the long-term average, it’s considered a buy signal. However, by the time this crossover is confirmed, the market might have already moved substantially. The trader, entering at this point, is now operating within a Profit Box, where the potential for gain is reduced compared to an earlier entry. Another example can be seen in volatile markets. A trader using ATR to set stop-loss orders might find
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
themselves stopped out of a profitable trade prematurely due to the lag in ATR adjusting to sudden market changes. Here, the Profit Box is defined by the distance between the entry point and the premature exit point, constrained by the lagging nature of the indicator. Understanding the Profit Box is essential for traders to develop strategies that not only recognize this constrained space but also employ tactics to optimize trading within it, thus maximizing their potential profits. Strategies to Overcome the Profit Box Dilemma Navigating the Profit Box effectively requires strategic thinking and a toolkit of various trading approaches. Here, we explore several strategies that can help traders maximize their gains within the confines of the Profit Box, along with the pros and cons of each approach. Avoiding Non-Trending Markets Strategy: This involves staying out of markets that lack a clear trend. Non-trending markets lead to very small, or negative (losing) Profit Boxes. Don’t continually try to capture every new breakout of a dead market, this is death by a thousand small cuts to a traders account. Scalping for Smaller Profits Strategy: Scalping is a technique where traders aim for small profit margins in short-term trades, often exiting the trade within minutes. Traders enter the profit box, but exit prior to the reversal signal based on predetermined price levels when to exit.
Pros: Allows traders to capitalize on small market movements; less exposure to long-term market risks. Cons: Requires constant market monitoring and quick decision-making; transaction costs can accumulate, impacting overall profit. Exiting Trades Before Reversals Strategy: This involves exiting a trade before indicators signal a reversal, gauging through predetermined profit targets, experience, liquidity, volume, recurring price patterns or other types of exit strategies. Pros: Minimizes the risk of holding a position into a losing trend; allows for more controlled and planned exits. Cons: Potentially leaving money on the table if the market continues to trend favorably after exit. Combining Mathematical and Trendline Approaches Strategy: Using a blend of mathematical models (like moving averages) and trendline analysis to make entry and exit decisions. Pros: Provides a more holistic view of the market; can validate signals from one method with the other. Cons: Requires deeper market understanding and experience; may result in conflicting signals. Using Trailing Stop Orders Strategy: Implementing trailing stops to automatically adjust the stop-loss level as the market moves favorably. Pros: Locks in profits while allowing the trade to run during favorable trends; reduces emotional decision-making.
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
Cons: In highly volatile markets, a trailing stop might be hit prematurely, exiting the trade before maximum profits are realized. Employing Additional Technical Indicators Strategy: Using a combination of different technical indicators to confirm trade signals. Pros: Increases the reliability of trade signals; provides a more comprehensive market analysis. Cons: Can lead to analysis paralysis where conflicting indicators make decision-making difficult; risk of overcomplicating the trading strategy.
Each of these strategies offers a way to navigate the Profit Box more effectively. However, it's crucial for traders to understand their own risk tolerance, trading style, and the specific market conditions they are operating in to choose the strategy that best suits their needs. Combining these strategies thoughtfully can lead to a more nuanced and successful trading approach, allowing traders to maximize their potential within the Profit Box. Lan Turner's Strategy Solution: Scalp ‘n Trail In my trading journey, I've developed a strategy I call "Scalp ‘n Trail," a method that effectively navigates the intricacies of the Profit Box. This
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
strategy is a blend of swift profit-taking through scalping, coupled with the strategic use of trailing stops to maximize gains. Here, I'll share how this approach helps me tackle the challenges posed by the Profit Box. My Unique Approach "Scalp ‘n Trail" revolves around two key tactics: securing quick, small gains through scalping and leveraging trailing stops for longer-term trend benefits. This strategy requires entering the market with multiple positions, contracts in the futures market shares in the stock market. Scalping for Immediate Gains: My initial focus in a trade is to scalp for immediate profits. This tactic is particularly effective in markets where the Profit Box is constricted due to factors like high volatility or delayed entry signals from lagging indicators. By quickly capturing small profits, I reduce the risk of losing out on potential gains due to market shifts. If I enter the trade with two contracts, I liquidate one contract with the scalp, and then let the other contract remain active for the trail. Employing Trailing Stops: After securing a profit through scalping, I then switch to using trailing stop orders. These stops adjust dynamically with favorable market movements, allowing me to remain in the trade and potentially capture larger trends. This part of the strategy not only maximizes the upside potential but also safeguards the profits I've already secured. This is done, through Track ‘n Trade by setting up an Auto-Trailing Q-OCO order to trail to exit on the ATR, PSAR, Price Bars Back PBB, or any number of other trailing factors you may choose based on your personal risk tolerance. Trailing too close can result in getting stopped out prematurely, trailing too far back can incur significantly larger
losses than necessary. Experience must dictate, there is no right answer, only different outcomes for each trade. Overcoming the Profit Box Challenges My "Scalp ‘n Trail" strategy directly addresses the limitations of the Profit Box: Maximizing Immediate Profit Opportunities: By initially focusing on scalping, I mitigate the risk associated with delayed market entries, ensuring I capitalize on profit opportunities as soon as they arise. Expanding the Profit Potential: The trailing stop aspect of the strategy allows me to capture extended market trends, effectively enlarging the Profit Box. This approach is crucial in avoiding premature exits and in maximizing profit from favorable market movements. Incorporating Risk Management: A key benefit of this strategy is its built-in risk management. The scalping component potentially offers some level of profit, while the trailing stops protect these gains and minimize potential losses in case of market reversals.
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
Flexibility and Adaptability: "Scalp ‘n Trail" is versatile and can be adapted to various market conditions, making it a valuable strategy for different trading environments. Through "Scalp ‘n Trail," I've developed a comprehensive method that not only acknowledges the constraints of the Profit Box but also leverages these limitations to optimize my trading outcomes across various market scenarios. Balancing Risk and Reward In trading, the interplay between risk and reward is a constant theme, and this is particularly evident when navigating the Profit Box. Each strategy to overcome the Profit Box dilemma comes with its
own set of risks and rewards. Additionally, the psychological aspects of trading within this framework play a crucial role in decision-making. Analysis of Risks Involved with Each Strategy Avoiding Non-Trending Markets o Risk: Missing out on potential profits from market movements that initially appear non-trending but eventually evolve into clear trends. o Reward: Reduced exposure to false signals and lower risk of losses in uncertain market conditions. Scalping for Smaller Profits
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
o Risk: High transaction costs and the potential for significant losses due to the high volume of trades. Requires intense focus and quick decision-making. o Reward: Opportunity to capitalize on small, frequent market movements, reducing exposure to long-term market shifts. Exiting Trades Before Reversals o Risk: Potential to exit a trade too early, missing out on additional profits if the market continues in a favorable direction. o Reward: Protects gains by avoiding market reversals and mitigating the risk of turning a profitable trade into a losing one. Mathematical and Trendline Approaches o Risk: Complexity and potential for conflicting signals, which can lead to indecision or incorrect trades. o Reward: A more nuanced understanding of market movements, leading to potentially more accurate trading decisions. Using Trailing Stop Orders
o Risk: In volatile markets, stops might be hit prematurely, leading to an exit before maximum profits are realized. o Reward: Allows profits to run during favorable trends while safeguarding against significant losses. Employing Additional Technical Indicators o Risk: Overcomplication of strategy and potential for 'analysis paralysis', where too many indicators lead to confusion. o Reward: Increased validation of trading signals, leading to potentially more informed and confident trading decisions. Psychological Aspects of the Profit Box Trading within the confines of the Profit Box also has significant psychological implications. The pressure to make quick decisions, especially in strategies like scalping, can be mentally taxing. There's also the emotional challenge of watching a profitable trade
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
turn against you, a common occurrence when exits are not timed well within the Profit Box framework. Additionally, there's the psychology of 'fear of missing out' (FOMO), which can lead traders to deviate from their strategies, especially in non-trending markets or when trailing stops are hit. Balancing the emotional aspects of greed and fear is crucial in making rational decisions that align with one’s trading plan. Effective trading within the Profit Box thus requires not only a solid understanding of the technical aspects of each strategy but also a strong psychological mindset. This involves discipline, emotional control, and the ability to stick to a well- thought-out trading plan despite the inevitable ups and downs of market movements. Thought-Provoking Question As you reflect on the concept of the Profit Box and its implications, consider this: How can you adjust your current trading strategies to better recognize and capitalize on the Profit Box in your trading environment? Are there aspects of your approach that might be limiting your profit potential or exposing you to unnecessary risk? Remember, the journey of a trader is one of constant learning and adaptation. Embrace the challenge of the Profit Box, use it to sharpen your trading skills, and let it guide you in mastering the art of balancing risk and reward. As you navigate the market's tides, let your newfound understanding of the Profit Box steer you towards more informed trading decisions. Lan Turner teaches finance at Utah Tech University and has been a guest lecturer at the Chicago Board of Trade and Chicago Mercantile Exchanges. As the editor-in-chief of PitNews Magazine and contributing author, he brings a wealth of knowledge to his readers.
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In this course, we'll equip you with advanced strategies, guide you through what to do after a buy or sell signal appears. Beyond Basics: Explore advanced strategies and learn to manage trades effectively. Strategic Exits: Master the art of exiting positions, whether your trade was right or wrong. Remember, "Trading is like playing chess. Most people know how the pieces move, but few know the strategies necessary to win the game." Refine Your Skills: Develop and hone your skills for trading success. Click Here to LEARN MORE and unlock your trading potential with this interactive training.
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The Hidden World of Prop Firms: Separating Fact From Fiction
by Aiden Gray It was a sweltering summer afternoon in Sedona Arizona, where I sat comfortably in my air conditioned loft surfing the web when I stumbled upon it—the digital mirage that promised to quench my thirst for financial freedom. "Get Funded! Trade Our Money, $150,000 Account!" the banner ad proclaimed, flashing across my screen like a neon sign in a dark alley. My heart skipped a beat. I could almost taste the success; it was intoxicating. In the high-stakes world of trading, proprietary trading firms, or "prop firms," offer a unique opportunity for traders to amplify their gains. However, not all prop firms are created equal. As the trading landscape evolves, distinguishing between legitimate and fraudulent prop firms has
never been more crucial. In this article, I want to guide you through the maze of real and fake prop firms, helping you make informed decisions that could save you from financial pitfalls and lead you toward genuine opportunities. As I clicked through I found myself in the labyrinthine corridors of their flashy website. "The Combine," they called it—a vetting process that promised to turn me into a trading prodigy. I felt a surge of adrenaline. This was my golden ticket. But as I read the fine print, a nagging doubt crept in. Why did I have to pay to prove my worth? I brushed it aside, attributing it to nerves. Little did I know, I was stepping into a carnival game rigged against me.
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
Real Prop Firms: Characteristics Real prop firms are institutional trading companies that hire traders to trade the firm's capital. Unlike brokerage accounts where you trade your own money, prop firms provide you with a large pool of capital to trade with, amplifying your potential gains—and losses. The Emotional Whirlpool Days turned into weeks, and the combine became my obsession. Each trade was a roll of the dice, and each loss was a stab at my ego. The emotional toll was unquantifiable. I felt like a moth drawn to a flame, unable to break free. And then came the vultures, offering me "exclusive" courses to improve my skills. $1,000 here, another $1,000 there. “Learn from us,” they said. “We’ll teach you how to pass the combine!” they promised. Months later, what did I have to show for it? A bruised ego and a lighter wallet. A Reputable Prop Firm’s Selection Process Securing a position at a reputable prop trading firm mirrors the rigor of a job application in a highly competitive industry. The selection process is multifaceted, involving an initial application, several rounds of interviews, and rigorous trading simulations under the watchful eye of your potential financial partner. These steps are designed to
meticulously assess a candidate's trading acumen, strategic thinking, and risk management skills. Demonstrating a Proven Trading History A prerequisite for consideration is a verifiable track record of successful real-money trading. This history serves as your professional portfolio, highlighting your proficiency in trading and your ability to manage risks effectively. Entering a legitimate prop firm is challenging and demands exceptional analytical and mathematical prowess. In order to ensure a good cultural and team fit, the journey typically starts with thorough interviews. Financial Commitments: Infusing Personal Capital Once accepted, you're generally expected to infuse a certain amount of your own capital, often upwards of $100,000. This serves as both your commitment and a risk buffer for the firm. Profit-Sharing Models In return for your investment and skills, the firm allocates a large trading account to you, often exceeding $1 million. As payment, you keep a significant portion of the profits, usually around 50% in the beginning, which can increase to as much as 70% with time, experience, and tenure. Risks and Rewards The catch? If you lose the amount you initially brought to the firm, you're out. It's a high-risk, high- reward environment that filters out those who can't withstand the pressures of institutional trading. The Harsh Realization It took far longer than it should have for the harsh truth to dawn on me: The combine was not designed for me to win; it was designed for me to fail. In this game, the odds were always in the house's favor, and I, unwittingly, played the part of the naïve carnival-goer, seduced by the false promise of easy riches. This realization hit me hard, like a sudden,
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Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
unexpected blow. Feelings of betrayal, exploitation, and embarrassment washed over me. Deep down, I always sensed this bitter truth, yet I chose to ignore it, clinging to the hope that it was all real. Fake Prop Firms: Characteristics: Fake prop firms often masquerade as legitimate trading companies but lack the stringent entry requirements and risk management protocols that real prop firms have. They often lure in traders with promises of "free money" and easy entry. Offering upwards of 90% payouts, where legitimate prop firms are closer to 50%. These firms advertise aggressively, inviting everyone and anyone to try their hand at trading. Their message is clear: "Come on in! We'll fund your account. Free money for everyone!" But as the saying goes, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is has never been more true than in the financial industry. The "Carnival Combine" as a Vetting Process Many fake prop firms use what they call a "combine" or some other term they’ve coined to indicate a testing period, as a way of “vetting” potential traders. However, this combine is more akin to a rigged carnival game than a legitimate vetting process. They charge you for the privilege of proving yourself, while the game is designed for you to lose. Hidden Costs: Software, Data, and Education Subscriptions Beyond the carnival fees, these firms often require you to subscribe to their trading software, data feeds, and even educational courses. I once met a trader who spent $30,000 on such "education," only to find himself back at square one, no funded account. The Difficulty of Maintaining a Funded Account Even if you miraculously pass their combine, maintaining the funded account is another uphill battle. The rules are stringent, and failure to comply results in losing your funded status.
The Carnival Combine: How Fake Prop Firms Rig the Game Just like a carnival game at your local fairgrounds, they’ve been designed for you to lose. Fake prop firms set up their combines with nearly impossible criteria. The goal isn't to find successful traders; it's to keep you paying for the opportunity to prove yourself through education, and subscription services. The Psychological Tactics Used to Lure Traders These firms are masters of psychological manipulation. They parade the rare success stories to give you the illusion that you, too, could be one of them. But remember, these are the exceptions, not the rule. Just like in your local community traveling carnival, generally speaking, the few people you do see walking around the fairgrounds, holding a giant panda, are usually plants. They’re there to give you the illusion that someone’s winning these games, so in your mind, you think, why not me? The Real Business Model of Fake Prop Firms The primary revenue for these firms isn't from successful trading; it's from the endless stream of hopeful traders paying for combines, software, and educational courses. In essence, they're not in the trading business; they're in the business of selling dreams, while offering large affiliate commissions to
January 2024
Page: 41
Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
any would-be YouTube influencer to peddle their story. Digital Learning Resources In today’s digital era, aspiring traders are uniquely positioned to gain invaluable knowledge, not only through the vast resources available online but also via classes at local community colleges. Platforms like YouTube offer a treasure trove of free trading knowledge, ranging from the basics to advanced strategies. These online resources, combined with structured coursework, can provide a comprehensive and multi-faceted education in trading. Alongside this, finding a reputable brokerage firm with robust trading platforms, and connecting with experienced mentors and trading communities, becomes more accessible. This blend of digital learning, formal education, and professional guidance requires minimal initial investment, making the path to trading success more attainable and less daunting than ever before. The Road Not Taken In hindsight, I wish I had taken the tried-and-true path of opening a traditional trading account. No gimmicks, no false promises—just me, my skills, and the market. It's a sobering thought that had I invested that $10,000 in a legitimate account, I would have had the freedom to trade on my own terms, without the circus overlords scrutinizing my every trade. Red Flags for Identifying Fake Prop Firms Number 1: No Requirement for a Real-Money Trading Track Record--the first glaring discrepancy between real and fake prop firms is the absence of stringent entry requirements. Legitimate proprietary trading firms hold prospective traders to an elevated standard, requiring a verifiable trading history that involves real money. This due diligence serves as an effective filter to identify individuals who have not only the theoretical understanding but also practical experience in navigating the complexities of financial markets.
On the other hand, fake prop firms do not emphasize or even require a trading track record involving real money. The absence of this requirement should be an immediate red flag because it indicates that these firms are more interested in garnering fees than in investing in skilled traders. Number 2: Upfront Fees for “Assessments”. Unlike genuine prop firms where you'd never have to pay to be interviewed, fake prop firms are notorious for charging upfront fees for assessment programs. These so-called assessments claim to evaluate your trading skills but are generally structured in a way that doesn't genuinely assess your potential as a trader. Instead, they serve as another income source for the masquerading firm. This upfront fee is antithetical to the practices of legitimate firms where the vetting process costs nothing for the prospective trader. These assessments are usually designed with stringent or unrealistic conditions that are difficult to meet, ensuring that most applicants will fail. So, even as participants expend time, effort, and money, the firm continues to rake in profits, not from successful trading, but from the ever-revolving door of hopeful candidates.
January 2024
Page: 42
Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
The Tried and True Method: Private Accounts. The Benefits of Trading in a Private Account. If you're looking to build a trading career, in my opinion, the best path is the tried and true method of trading your own private account. This allows you to gain real-world experience without the smoke, mirrors and ridiculous rules of fake prop firms. Gain Experience and Grow Your Own Money By trading in your own account, you can develop your strategies, learn risk management, and grow your capital at your own pace. There are plenty of reputable trading firms and platforms that offer robust tools and resources to help you succeed. This also builds your “resume” for that day you truly do want to join a legitimate prop firm. A Lesson Hard Learned If there's one thing I want you to take away from my cautionary tale, it's this: Do your due diligence. Real prop firms are legitimate businesses that require
proven skills and financial commitment. Don't be swayed by the allure of quick riches and shortcuts. In the world of trading, there are no free lunches, only costly lessons. knowledge is power. Whether you're considering joining a prop firm or trading on your own, it's crucial to do your due diligence. Don't fall for the allure of easy money and lofty promises. Remember, in trading, as in life, there are no shortcuts to success. Aiden Gray is an avid full-time trader living in Sedona, Arizona. He specializes in day trading futures and stock options with Track ‘n Trade Live. Aiden is a member of Lan Turner’s President’s Club and a contributing writer to PitNews Magazine.
January 2024
Page: 43
Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
January 2024
Page: 44
Letter to the Editor
Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
Scans & Finds Historically Repeating Market Cycles and Trends
TradeMiner Market Data Miner Find the right stock-futures to trade at the right time www.TradeMiner.com
January 2024
Page: 45
TradeMiner Stocks
Bullish Bect on, Dickinson and Co (BDX) Begins Jan 4, 2024, Ends Feb 2, 2024 39 years, 87%, 10 tradi ng da ys, no more than 30 tradi ng days. Score 3.55 Probability Not Yet Calcu lat ed Wi n % 87.18% Cal Days 30 Avg Profit (%) 5. 49% Avg Profit ($) $54.91 Sector Health Care Ind ustry Health Care Equipment & Supplies
1990 198 5 1990 1995 200 0 2005 201 0 201 5 202 0
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
200 0 201 0 2 02 0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Begin Date Begin P rice End Date E nd Price Max Gain Max Draw Jan 6, 2022 243.09 Feb 2, 2022 247.91 $67 .03 -$10 .57
1.98%    ($19.83)
Jan 6, 2022 242.19 Feb 2, 2022 247.00 $67 .03 -$10 .57
1.98%    ($19.83)
Jan 7, 2021 241.56 Feb 2, 2021 245.15 $50 .74 -$15.5 6
1.49%    ($14.85)
Jan 7, 20 20 2 54.37 Feb 4, 2020 2 66.43 $54 .61
-$5 .34
4.74%    ($47.39)
Jan 7, 20 19 2 00.59 Feb 4, 2019 2 28 .66 $153.54
-$2.21
13.99%    ($139.93)
Jan 5, 20 18 2 03.11 Feb 2, 2018 2 16 .58 $11 7.01
-$9.4 9
6.63%    ($66.29)
Jan 6, 2017 1 48.74 Feb 2, 2017 1 60.16 $97 .71
-$2.12
7.67%    ($76.71)
Jan 7, 2016 1 27.93 Feb 2, 2016 1 28.39 $25.33 -$47 .2 6
0.37%    ($3.67)
Jan 7, 2015 1 22.63 Feb 3, 2015 122.90 $41 .30 -$34 .77
0.22%    ($2.20)
Jan 7, 2014 94 .23 Feb 4, 2014 90.58 $22.0 3 -$45.97
-3.87%    (-$38.72)
Jan 7, 2013 67 .09 Feb 4, 2013 7 1.27 $71 .48
-$3.62
6.24%    ($62.38)
Jan 6, 2012 59 .49 Feb 2, 2012 64.83 $10 1.58
-$6.18
8.96%    ($89.64)
Jan 6, 2011 66 .63 Feb 2, 2011 66.93 $19 .8 0 -$21 .48
0.44%    ($4.44)
Jan 7, 2010 60 .67 Feb 2, 2010 6 0.33 $15.24 -$34 .8 6
-0.56%    (-$5.55)
Jan 7, 2009 51 .94 Feb 3, 2009 5 6.68 $140.34 -$10 .5 0
9.14%    ($91.39)
Jan 7, 2008 66 .66 Feb 4, 2008 6 6.72 $47 .7 8 -$80 .1 2
0.09%    ($0.91)
Jan 8, 2007 52 .38 Feb 2, 2007 57.59 $104.90
-$4.56
9.93%    ($99.34)
Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
January 2024
Page: 46
Bullish Netflix Inc (NFLX) Begins Jan 25, 2024, Ends Feb 19, 2024 16 years, 87%, 10 tradi ng da ys, no more than 30 tradi ng days. Score 4.21 Pr obabi lity
Not Yet Calculated
Wi n % 8 7.5 % Cal Days Avg Profit (%) 13.72% Avg Pro fit ($)
$137.15
Sector Cons umer Goods Industry
Internet & Direct Marketing
201 0 200 8 201 0 201 2 201 4 201 6 201 8 202 0 202 2
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
4 00
201 5 202 0
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
Begin Date Begin P rice End Date E nd Price Max Gain Max Draw Jan 25, 2 022 379.14 Feb 15 , 202 2 407.46 $20 9.26 -$59 .40
7.47%    ($74.70)
Jan 25, 2 022 379.14 Feb 15 , 202 2 407.46 $20 9.26 -$59 .40
7.47%    ($74.70)
Jan 25, 2021 567.00 Feb 16 , 202 1 5 57.28 $4.85 -$90 .4 2
-1.71%    (-$17.14)
Jan 27, 2020 345.95 Feb 18, 202 0 387.78 $12 6.00 -$21 .3 9
12.09%    ($120.91)
Jan 25, 2 019 32 8.72 Feb 15 , 201 9 356.87 $10 8.54
-$1.73
8.56%    ($85.64)
Jan 25, 2018 263.00 Feb 15, 2018 2 80.27 $90 .53 -$10 2.24
6.57%    ($65.67)
Jan 25, 2017 140.80 Feb 15, 201 7 1 42.27 $36 .58 -$16 .2 6
1.04%    ($10.44)
Jan 25, 2016 99 .7 8 Feb 17 , 201 6 94.76 $29 .06 -$19 8.74
-5.03%    (-$50.31)
Jan 26, 2015 62 .57 Feb 17 , 201 5 6 7.14 $76 .7 1
-$9.84
7.3%    ($72.97)
Jan 27, 2014 55.3 4 Feb 18 , 201 4 6 2.41 $13 9.01 -$43 .44
12.77%    ($127.67)
Jan 25, 2 013 20 .81 Feb 15 , 201 3 2 7.07 $304.32
-$0.41
30.1%    ($300.95)
Jan 25, 2012 13 .24 Feb 16 , 201 2 1 7.42 $43 9.37 -$11 .3 3
31.51%    ($315.10)
Jan 25, 2011 26.14 Feb 15 , 201 1 3 4.40 $35 2.81
-$7.8 1
31.59%    ($315.86)
Jan 25, 2010 7 .29 Feb 16, 201 0 9.2 7 $27 3.46 -$49 .5 6
27.05%    ($270.52)
Jan 26, 2009 4 .34 Feb 17, 200 9 5.3 2 $277.30 -$42 .4 3
22.43%    ($224.34)
Jan 25, 2008 3 .18 Feb 19 , 200 8 3.8 3 $238.78 -$52 .06
20.24%    ($202.42)
Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
January 2024
Page: 47
12 Days
TradeMiner Stocks
Bullish He rs hey Co (The) (HSY) Begins Jan 30, 2024, Ends Feb 26, 2024 37 years, 89%, 10 tradi ng da ys, no more than 30 tradi ng days. Score 3.67 Probability No t Yet Calcu lated Wi n % 89.19% Cal Days 28 Avg Profit (%) 4.2% Avg Profit ($) $4 2.00 Sector Consumer Goods Industry Food Products
1990 1 987 1 992 1997 200 2 2 00 7 201 2 201 7 2 02 2
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1995 2 00 0 2005 201 0 201 5 202 0
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
Begin Date Begin P rice End Date E nd Price Max Gain Max Draw Jan 28, 2022 190.96 Feb 23, 2022 2 00.78 $73 .89 -$13 .0 2
5.14%    ($51.44)
Jan 28, 2022 190.08 Feb 23, 2022 1 99.85 $73 .89 -$13 .0 2
5.14%    ($51.44)
Jan 28, 2021 140.95 Feb 23, 2021 1 43.22 $56 .50 -$12 .2 3
1.61%    ($16.12)
Jan 30, 2020 142.63 Feb 25, 202 0 1 48.94 $68 .96
-$1.52
4.42%    ($44.20)
Jan 30, 2019 96.95 Feb 25 , 201 9 1 01.54 $66 .94 -$41 .92
4.73%    ($47.32)
Jan 30, 2018 97.92 Feb 23, 2018 87.48 $15.38 -$122.6 3
-10.66%    (-$106.60)
Jan 30, 2017 92.63 Feb 23, 2017 95.68 $39.1 9 -$39 .51
3.29%    ($32.92)
Jan 28, 2016 73.23 Feb 24 , 201 6 77.96 $78 .7 4 -$38 .5 0
6.46%    ($64.62)
Jan 29, 2015 85.01 Feb 24, 201 5 88.64 $55.44 -$31 .3 0
4.27%    ($42.68)
Jan 30, 2014 79 .81 Feb 25 , 201 4 87.60 $11 7.41
-$9.62
9.77%    ($97.67)
Jan 30, 2013 62.2 5 Feb 25 , 201 3 64.86 $57 .7 0
-$1.67
4.19%    ($41.93)
Jan 30, 2012 47.8 3 Feb 24 , 201 2 48.11 $17 .3 4 -$29 .77
0.58%    ($5.81)
Jan 28, 2011 36.57 Feb 23, 2011 38.77 $81.31 -$29 .2 0
6.01%    ($60.10)
Jan 28, 2010 27.64 Feb 23, 201 0 2 9.34 $75.36 -$32 .9 8
6.14%    ($61.38)
Jan 29, 2009 26.73 Feb 24 , 200 9 24.70 $26 .3 1 -$90 .4 3
-7.58%    (-$75.81)
Jan 30, 2008 25.40 Feb 26, 2008 2 6.30 $48 .05 -$65.87
3.56%    ($35.65)
Jan 30, 2007 34 .48 Feb 23, 200 7 36.15 $69 .63
-$6.68
4.83%    ($48.31)
Disclaimer: There is a chance of loss when trading Stocks, Futures and Options. See full risk disclosure online at: PitNews.com/risk.htm Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc.
January 2024
Page: 48
TradeMiner Stocks
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PitNews Magazine In-Depth Insights, Analysis, and Education on Trading and Financial Markets; Stocks, Futures & Options Published by: PitNews Press, Inc. About PitNews Magazine PitNews Magazine is a renowned publication in the trading and financial industry, known for its insightful analysis and comprehensive education on various market aspects, and has been in publication since 1998. Our aim is to equip traders and investors with the tools, knowledge, and strategies they need to excel in the competitive world of Stocks, Futures, and Options. Featuring contributions from seasoned professionals and experts, our magazine includes articles from our acclaimed Editor-in-Chief, Lan H. Turner, and distinguished traders and contributing columnists such as Dr. Scott Brown, Aiden Drake, L. Ben Turner, David Duty, Claire Kristensen, among others. Note that some author names have been altered for privacy. All articles, examples, and stories in PitNews Magazine should be considered, from a legal standpoint, as works of fiction used to illustrate strategies or further narratives, unless specifically stated otherwise. Our magazine provides readers with a cutting-edge perspective on trading strategies, software platforms, research tools, and much more. We utilize artificial intelligence tools to assist in researching topics, editing articles, creating graphics and images, and suggesting grammar and spelling corrections. In fact, this copyright notice was crafted and refined using artificial intelligence to improve readability. If you're interested in joining our team, contributing an article, or becoming an affiliate reseller of our magazine and other services, please visit our website for registration details. For more information about PitNews Magazine, visit www.PitNews.com. Copyright © PitNews Press, Inc., All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, or transmitted in any form or by any means, including photocopying, recording, or other electronic or mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the publisher, except in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. All images have been licensed or created specifically for PitNews Magazine.
January 2024
Page: 50
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D 1 R W 2 S AC A 3 LO RH 4 LT A 5 IDENGRAY ST ZD TBU 6 OG C 7 LAIREKRISTENSEN EOAAF EWH U L 8 ANTURNERC 9 N 10 EVADA HD C 11 OMMODITIES C P 12 UERTARICO G O
How does a penguin build its house?
Igloos it together!
Crossword on Page 13
XARA
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