April smells like fresh-cut grass and tax receipts.

I know that’s a strange way to start an editor’s letter, but I’ve been thinking about it all week. There’s something about this month that makes you want to throw open the windows, reorganize everything, and pretend last year’s mistakes never happened. Spring cleaning. For your closet, your kitchen junk drawer, and — if you’re reading this magazine — your portfolio.

That’s the thread running through this entire issue. Every article, in its own way, is about clearing out the clutter and getting positioned for what comes next.

We start with our poet laureate, Gideon P. Thornfield, whose The April Ledger captures the beautiful chaos of tax season colliding with earnings season. If you’ve ever tried to file a 1099 while watching your futures positions gap at the open, Gideon wrote this one for you. (I may have read it three times. I may have teared up once. Riley judged me. He always does.)

Then Dr. Scott Brown delivers what I think is one of the most important articles we’ve published. The Step-Up in Basis is about a provision in the tax code — IRC Section 1014 — that most investors have heard of but almost nobody uses correctly. Dr. Brown makes the case that April, the month you’re already staring at tax forms, is exactly the right time to think about estate planning. I’ll be honest: I sent this article to my brother Wyatt. He pretended to read it. I know because he texted back “cool” after forty-five seconds. That’s not enough time, Wyatt.

As for me — well, I went and did something I didn’t plan. I was supposed to spend April quietly watching livestock charts in demo mode. Pigs and cows, remember? That was the whole story. Instead, I day traded crude oil on my very first day. Three micro contracts, then two minis. Made over a hundred dollars. Called Aiden at an unreasonable hour. He said I was a monster. I took it as a compliment. You can read the whole story in Springing into Commodities — including the part where I explain that baby cow futures cost $7,320 in margin. I’m not ready for baby cows yet. I’ll get there.

Jordan Blacc tackles something that confused even him — and Jordan doesn’t confuse easily. In The Micro-Strategy Playbook, he unpacks the five different ticker symbols that all come from the same company: Strategy Inc., formerly MicroStrategy. MSTR, STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC — five flavors of the same Bitcoin bet, each with different risk profiles, different yields, and different rules. Jordan lays it all out with his usual mix of sharp analysis and dad jokes. There’s a cheat sheet. You’ll want to screenshot it.

And then there’s Grant Thorne.

Grant doesn’t write articles. He writes investigations. Follow the Money: The Reload Economy traces the money flowing through defense contracts, congressional stock disclosures, and missile replenishment orders — and names the publicly traded companies positioned to benefit. If you want to understand how war empties warehouses and fills portfolios, this is the piece. I read it twice and felt like I needed a cup of coffee and a filing cabinet afterward.

Our S.W.O.T.T. Report this month examines $ALB — Albemarle Corporation, the world’s largest lithium producer and our first seasonal trade pick for April. After a brutal “lithium winter,” the stock has rallied over 240% from its lows. The question is whether the recovery has legs. The Stock Market Almanac team digs into the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats, and technicals.

Speaking of seasonal trades — the Seasonals column has three data-backed setups this month: the Tax Deadline Reversal (buy after April 15 — 76% win rate), the Energy Spring Rally (XLE averages +4.3% in April), and the last call before “Sell in May.” TradeMiner charts are included for all three picks: $ALB, $HAS, and $IDXX.

And don’t miss this month’s SFO OnAir — our monthly podcast, now under its new name (you may remember it as PitNews OnAir). This episode, Jake and Lena dig into Grant Thorne’s Follow the Money investigation — the defense contracts, the congressional trades, and the reload economy. If you have a topic you want Jake and Lena to tackle, drop it in the TradeMentors Facebook Group.

April is one of those months that rewards people who pay attention. The tax deadline passes, earnings season kicks off, and the seasonal data says the second half of this month belongs to the bulls. Whether you’re spring cleaning your portfolio, filing your K-1s, or — like me — learning that crude oil doesn’t care about your plans, there’s something in this issue for you.

Read it with a coffee. Or a calculator. Or both.

Here’s to thoughtful entries, disciplined exits, and a Q2 that rewards the ones who showed up prepared.

Be careful out there — but not too careful.

— Claire

Every April, the American taxpayer is reminded—with some urgency—of the price of capital gains. Tax returns are filed. Brokerage statements are reconciled. And somewhere in every portfolio review, the same uncomfortable question surfaces: What happens to all of these unrealized gains when I die?

The answer, for those who understand IRC Section 1014, is remarkably favorable. The answer, for those who do not, is a lifetime of unnecessary tax exposure and suboptimal estate planning. This article examines the step-up in basis provision—one of the most powerful and most misunderstood mechanisms in the U.S. tax code—and explains why April, the month of tax reckoning, is precisely the right time to integrate it into a comprehensive wealth transfer strategy.

The Mechanics of Cost Basis

Before addressing the step-up, it is essential to establish what “basis” means in the context of capital gains taxation. Basis is the original cost of an asset, adjusted for stock splits, reinvested dividends, and return of capital distributions. When a taxpayer sells a security, the taxable gain or loss is calculated as the difference between the sale price and the adjusted basis.

Consider a straightforward example. An investor purchases 1,000 shares of a blue-chip stock at $50 per share in 2005. The cost basis is $50,000. By 2026, the stock has appreciated to $200 per share, giving the position a market value of $200,000. If the investor sells, the taxable capital gain is $150,000. At the current long-term capital gains rate of 20 percent—plus the 3.8 percent Net Investment Income Tax for high earners—the federal tax liability on that sale approaches $35,700.

That is a substantial cost for realizing a gain. And it is a cost that many investors pay unnecessarily, because they do not understand the alternative.

What the Step-Up in Basis Actually Does

Under IRC Section 1014, when an individual dies, the cost basis of appreciated assets held at death is “stepped up” to the fair market value on the date of death. The beneficiary who inherits those assets receives them at the new, higher basis. All of the unrealized capital gains accumulated during the decedent’s lifetime are eliminated—permanently.

Returning to the example above: if the investor holds those 1,000 shares until death, and the fair market value at the date of death is $200 per share, the beneficiary inherits the position with a new cost basis of $200,000—not the original $50,000. If the beneficiary sells immediately, the capital gain is zero. The $150,000 in appreciation passes to the next generation entirely free of capital gains tax.

The tax savings in this single example: approximately $35,700. Across a diversified portfolio held for decades, the aggregate savings can reach hundreds of thousands of dollars.

The Gift Trap: Section 1015 vs. Section 1014

One of the most common planning errors involves gifting appreciated assets during the owner’s lifetime. Under IRC Section 1015, when an asset is gifted (rather than inherited), the recipient receives a “carryover basis”—the original cost basis of the donor. No step-up occurs.

The distinction is critical. Consider a parent who owns $500,000 in appreciated stock with a basis of $100,000. If the parent gifts the stock to an adult child, the child’s basis is $100,000. A subsequent sale triggers $400,000 in capital gains. If, however, the parent retains the stock until death, the child inherits it with a $500,000 basis—and pays zero capital gains tax.

The data is unambiguous: holding appreciated assets until death, rather than gifting them during one’s lifetime, can save a family $95,200 or more in federal taxes on a single position. This is not a marginal difference. It is the difference between competent estate planning and expensive generosity.

Community Property: The Double Step-Up

For married couples residing in one of nine community property states—Arizona, California, Idaho, Louisiana, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Washington, and Wisconsin—the provision becomes even more powerful. Under community property law, both halves of jointly held property receive a step-up in basis upon the death of either spouse, not just the decedent’s half.

The quantitative impact is significant. A couple purchases 2,000 shares of stock at $50 per share—a $100,000 cost basis. The stock appreciates to $200 per share ($400,000 market value). In a common law state, when one spouse dies, only the decedent’s half (1,000 shares) receives the step-up. The surviving spouse’s half retains the original $50 basis. In a community property state, all 2,000 shares receive the step-up to $200. If the surviving spouse sells the entire position the following day, the capital gain is zero.

The tax savings on this example alone: approximately $71,400 in a community property state versus approximately $35,700 in a common law state. This is a variable that is entirely within the taxpayer’s control—and one that too few financial advisors discuss with their clients.

Current Legislative Status

Investors who follow tax policy will note that the step-up in basis has faced periodic legislative challenges. The Biden Administration proposed eliminating the step-up for gains exceeding $1 million in 2021. That proposal did not advance. More recently, as Congress debates the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, the step-up provision has been explicitly preserved, with the estate tax exemption raised to approximately $15 million per individual.

The evidence suggests that the step-up in basis, despite its periodic critics, remains one of the most politically durable provisions in the tax code. It has survived in some form since the Revenue Act of 1921—over a century of continuous application. Nonetheless, prudent planning does not rely on legislative permanence. The current favorable environment should be treated as a window of opportunity, not a guarantee.

Seven Common Mistakes

Based on my analysis of estate planning case studies and tax return data, the following errors appear with troubling frequency:

1. Selling appreciated positions to “lock in gains” in retirement. Unless the funds are needed for living expenses, this converts a future tax-free inheritance into a current taxable event.
2. Gifting appreciated stock instead of holding it. As discussed above, the carryover basis under Section 1015 eliminates the step-up benefit entirely.
3. Placing appreciated assets in revocable trusts without professional guidance. Revocable trusts do qualify for the step-up, but irrevocable trusts may not, depending on structure.
4. Ignoring the community property advantage. Married couples in qualifying states who do not title assets as community property forfeit the double step-up.
5. Failing to harvest losses on depreciated positions. The step-up eliminates gains at death, but it also eliminates losses. Positions trading below basis should be sold during the owner’s lifetime to capture the tax deduction.
6. Assuming the step-up applies to retirement accounts. It does not. IRAs, 401(k)s, and other tax-deferred accounts do not receive a step-up in basis. Distributions to beneficiaries are taxed as ordinary income.
7. Neglecting to update beneficiary designations. The step-up occurs upon inheritance. If beneficiary designations are outdated, assets may pass to unintended recipients—with the step-up benefit flowing to the wrong individuals.

A Practical Framework for April

Tax season is not merely a compliance exercise. It is an annual opportunity to evaluate one’s portfolio through the lens of estate efficiency. The following framework, applied during April’s tax review, can yield substantial long-term savings:

Step 1: Identify highly appreciated positions. Flag any holding with unrealized gains exceeding 100 percent of basis. These are the positions most valuable to hold until death.

Step 2: Review loss positions. Any security trading below its cost basis should be evaluated for tax-loss harvesting. The step-up eliminates the ability to claim a loss after death—use it now.

Step 3: Audit asset titling. Community property state residents should verify that brokerage accounts are titled as community property, not joint tenancy. The titling determines whether the double step-up applies.

Step 4: Separate taxable from tax-deferred. Ensure that the most highly appreciated assets are held in taxable accounts (where the step-up applies) rather than in IRAs or 401(k)s (where it does not).

Step 5: Consult with an estate planning attorney. The step-up in basis interacts with estate tax exemptions, trust structures, and state-level inheritance taxes. A qualified professional can optimize the strategy for individual circumstances.

Conclusion

The step-up in basis under IRC Section 1014 represents what I consider the single most valuable tax provision available to long-term investors. It rewards patience. It rewards holding. And it rewards those who plan their estates with the same analytical rigor they apply to their investment decisions.

This April, as tax returns are filed and portfolio statements are reviewed, the question is not whether the step-up matters. The data makes that case unequivocally. The question is whether it has been properly integrated into your wealth transfer strategy. For the vast majority of investors, the answer—upon honest examination—is not yet.

The numbers do not change based on when you learn them. But the earlier you act, the more wealth you preserve.

Last month I told you I was stepping into the futures market. Pigs and cows, remember? Well, I’ve taken the first steps. And I have notes. Lots of notes. Some excitement. A little bit of humility. And one crude oil trade that made me call Aiden at an unreasonable hour.

Let me walk you through my first real look at commodity trading.

Demo Mode: Because I’m Not an Idiot

First things first: I decided to start my pigs and cows journey in demo mode. Better to get some experience before jumping in with both feet. Mr. Turner didn’t even have to say it. He just gave me that look — the one that means “I’m proud of you for not being reckless, Claire.”

I figure if I can learn the rhythm of these markets without risking real money, I’ll be in much better shape when I go live. Demo first. Confidence second. Real money third. Rodeo queens don’t ride the bull before checking the rigging.

The First Surprise: No Minis or Micros

So here’s the thing nobody told me. There are no mini or micro contracts in pigs and cows.

I know. I was surprised too. In the stock index world, you’ve got micro E-minis, mini-Nasdaq contracts — all sorts of bite-sized options for people who don’t want to go full stampede on day one. But in the livestock pits? It’s the real deal. Live Cattle. Lean Hogs. Full-sized contracts. That’s it.

Still, the margins are manageable. Both Live Cattle and Lean Hogs require about $2,000 in margin to open a position. That’s not nothing, but it’s not terrifying either. I was expecting worse.

Feeder Cattle, though? Those are the baby cows — the ones still growing up. And they are expensive to trade. The margin on Feeder Cattle is $7,320.

So feeders are off the table for now. Although, I have to admit, Mr. Turner did point out how nicely they trend. He pulled up some charts and I could see it — clean, sweeping moves that a swing trader would love. I may reconsider once I get my feet under me. But for now? Live Cattle and Lean Hogs are my arena.

Trading Hours: Ranch Girl Meets Market Clock

Here’s something that changes my entire daily routine: livestock markets don’t trade all day. They trade from 6:30 AM to 11:05 AM Pacific time. That’s it. The window opens, and about four and a half hours later, it slams shut.

Now, my “real job” is evenings — I’m a tour guide here in Las Vegas. So technically, if I can drag myself out of bed early enough, I should be good to trade these contracts. The key word there is drag.

When I was on the ranch, 6:00 AM was breakfast. And most everyone else had already put in a couple hours before the heat set in. Grandma usually saved me some pancakes… since I rarely made breakfast at 6:00 AM.

So there you have it. My first real look at pigs and cows: demo mode, no minis, manageable margins (except feeders), and a market clock that demands I become a morning person again.

I’m watching the 15-minute and 60-minute charts, plus the daily, on both Live Cattle and Lean Hogs. I have no plans to day trade livestock — but I do want to use the minute charts to help me get a better entry price. These markets are big enough that timing matters. You can’t just slap a market order and hope for the best. Not with these contract sizes.

Both markets, to my eye, look like they’re ready for a price correction. So I’m looking to short both, if I can get a good entry. We’ll see. I could be completely wrong. But that’s what demo mode is for.

Plot Twist: My First Day Trade Was Crude Oil

I know, I know. Pigs and cows, right? That’s the whole story. Except… life had other plans.

I was watching the energy markets — just casually, the way you watch a thunderstorm roll in from the porch — and I saw what was happening in crude oil. Volatility. Real, visible, tradeable volatility. The kind where the candles are telling you something and you either listen or you don’t.

I started with the micro crude oil contract. Day margin? $262 to open a single position. Two hundred and sixty-two dollars. That’s less than my last hair appointment.

I saw an opportunity for a short position. First red candle to make a new low — and I took the trade with three contracts. My heart was going. My palms were sweating. Riley was staring at me from the couch like I’d lost my mind.

I closed out my very first trade green. $39.00.

Thirty-nine dollars. I know that’s not retirement money. But I swear, the adrenaline was worth ten times that. My first commodity day trade. Green. On crude oil. On my very first try.

Then I Went Bigger

After the micro trade, something clicked. Confidence is a funny thing. It’s not the money. It’s the proof. Proof that you can read a chart, take a position, manage the risk, and walk away with something.

So I switched to the mini crude oil contract. Bigger. The day margin is $1,206.50 per contract. Real money now. I put on two positions, trailing one stop on the ATR and the second on the PSAR.

My first position got stopped out at +$62.00. Sixty-two dollars, thank you very much.

The second position? It broke even. I got scared when the market started to turn against me, so I took it off. Could I have held? Maybe. But I’m learning, and protecting capital is more important than being right.

Final tally for my very first day of day trading crude oil: over $100.00 in profit.

The Phone Call

I got so excited I had to call Aiden.

Not text. Not message. Call. Like a person from the 1990s. I needed him to hear the excitement in my voice. I needed someone who understood what this meant.

“Aiden! I just day traded crude oil! Three micro contracts, then two minis. I’m up over a hundred bucks!”

There was a pause. And then:

“Nice, Claire. I think we’ve created a monster.”

What I Learned This Month

I came into April thinking I’d spend the month watching livestock charts in demo mode. Quietly. Patiently. Like a responsible adult.

Instead, I traded crude oil on my first day. Made money. Called Aiden to brag. And now I’m more excited about commodities than I’ve been about anything since I discovered that Vegas has a drive-through wedding chapel. (Riley was my witness. Long story.)

Here’s what I actually learned:

• Demo first. Always. No exceptions. (Unless crude oil is screaming at you, apparently.)
• Know your margins. $2,000 for hogs and cattle. $7,320 for feeders. $262 for micro crude. The numbers matter.
• Use minute charts for entries, even if you’re swing trading. These contracts are big enough that a few ticks of slippage adds up.
• Trading hours are limited. Livestock shuts down before lunch. Plan accordingly.
• Start small, scale up. Micro to mini. Don’t jump straight to the full-size contract and pretend you know what you’re doing.

Next month I’ll have more to report. Maybe a live cattle trade. Maybe another crude oil adventure. Maybe Riley will finally stop judging me from the couch.

But probably not that last one.

I have a confession. Last month I sat in front of my screen staring at five different ticker symbols — all from the same company — and realized I had no idea what three of them actually were.

Five tickers. Same company. Different risk profiles. Different yields. Different rules.

If that doesn’t sound like something Wall Street would cook up specifically to confuse the rest of us, I don’t know what does.

But here’s the thing: once I actually sat down and unpacked them, it stopped being confusing and started being genuinely fascinating. Because what Michael Saylor has built at Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy) isn’t just a Bitcoin play. It’s a capital structure buffet. And depending on your risk tolerance, your income needs, and how much Bitcoin exposure you can stomach, there’s probably a seat at this table for you.

Let me walk you through it.

First: The Rebrand Nobody Saw Coming

MicroStrategy — the enterprise software company that most people forgot existed until Michael Saylor started buying Bitcoin like it was going out of style — officially changed its name to Strategy Inc. in August 2025.

The reason? The company now holds over 761,000 Bitcoin on its balance sheet. That’s roughly $57.6 billion worth, acquired at an average cost of about $75,696 per coin. At some point, calling yourself a “software company” when your balance sheet is 95% Bitcoin starts to feel dishonest.

So they dropped the pretense. Strategy Inc. now calls itself “the world’s first and largest Bitcoin Treasury Company.” And to fund that treasury, they’ve created a family of financial instruments that would make a financial engineering professor weep with joy.

The Five Flavors

Here’s the lineup. I’m going to walk through each one, because getting them mixed up is exactly the kind of expensive mistake we’re all capable of making. (I know I am. My wife still reminds me about the time I bought the wrong ETF because I was watching the kids at the same time. That was a fun conversation.)

$MSTR — The Common Stock

This is the one everyone knows. MSTR is the common equity of Strategy Inc. Trading around $140, it behaves like a leveraged call option on Bitcoin. When BTC rips higher, MSTR rips harder. When BTC drops, MSTR drops harder. That’s the deal.

There’s no dividend. No safety net. No yield. Just pure, uncut Bitcoin exposure amplified through corporate leverage and continuous share issuance. If you believe Bitcoin is going to $500,000, MSTR is the rocket ship. If you think Bitcoin is going to $30,000, MSTR is the crater.

I like to think of MSTR as the oldest sibling. Bold. Confident. First one off the diving board. Also the one most likely to break something.

$STRK — The Convertible Play (8% Yield)

This is where it starts getting interesting. STRK is an 8% perpetual preferred stock — meaning it pays $8.00 per share annually in quarterly dividends, and it never matures. But here’s the twist: it converts.

Ten shares of STRK can be exchanged for one share of MSTR, which effectively sets a $1,000 strike price on MSTR. At today’s MSTR price of ~$140, that conversion feature is way out of the money. But if you believe MSTR could reach $1,000 over the next several years? You’re collecting 8% while you wait.

Trading around $78.50 against a $100 par value, the effective yield for a new buyer is actually closer to 10.2%. That discount to par exists because the market isn’t sure the conversion feature will ever pay off. But that’s exactly what makes it compelling — you get paid to be patient.

$STRF — The Safe One (10% Yield, Cumulative)

If MSTR is the oldest sibling and STRK is the clever middle child, STRF is the responsible one. The one who actually has a savings account.

STRF pays a 10% annual dividend ($10.00 per share), paid quarterly. No conversion feature — this is a pure income play. But here’s the key: the dividends are cumulative. If Strategy’s board ever skips a payment, the rate compounds at +1% per year up to a maximum of 18%. That’s a powerful enforcement mechanism. Miss my dividend? Fine. Now you owe me more.

Trading right around par ($100), STRF has shown the smallest drawdowns of the entire family. When MSTR dropped 40% peak-to-trough, STRF only dropped about 24%. For someone who wants Bitcoin-adjacent income without the roller coaster, this is the seat with the seatbelt.

$STRD — The Discount Shelf (10% Yield, Non-Cumulative)

STRD looks a lot like STRF on the surface. Same 10% stated rate. Same quarterly payment. Same $100 par value. But there’s one crucial difference that changes everything: the dividends are non-cumulative.

What does that mean? If Strategy’s board decides to skip a dividend payment — for any reason — it’s gone. Forever. No makeup. No penalty. No compound clock ticking in your favor. Just… poof.

That risk is why STRD trades at roughly $77 — a 23% discount to its $100 par value. The market is pricing in the possibility that those dividends might not always show up. But for traders willing to accept that risk, the effective yield at today’s price is approximately 13%.

And here’s the behavioral trap I want you to see: 13% yield feels like a gift. Your brain says, “That’s incredible! STRF only pays 10%!” But STRF’s 10% comes with a guarantee that missed payments compound. STRD’s 13% comes with the understanding that the board can walk away whenever they want.

The higher number isn’t always the better deal. We just want it to be.

$STRC — The Monthly Check (Variable Rate, ~11.5%)

This is the newest member of the family, and it’s designed for one specific type of investor: the person who wants a check every single month and doesn’t want to think about price volatility.

STRC pays a variable rate — currently around 11.5% annualized — and it adjusts monthly to keep the share price anchored near $100 par. Think of it as the most bond-like instrument in a family that’s otherwise very un-bond-like.

The monthly payment schedule is what makes it unique. STRK, STRF, and STRD all pay quarterly. STRC pays monthly. For income investors who budget around their dividend calendar — and I know many of you do, because I’m one of you — that predictability matters.

STRC is also currently the primary funding vehicle for Strategy’s Bitcoin purchases. In March alone, the company’s Bitcoin acquisitions were “mostly funded through sales of STRC.” So when Saylor buys another billion dollars of Bitcoin, there’s a good chance your STRC shares helped pay for it.

How I’m Thinking About This

Here’s where I have to be honest with you: I don’t think most retail investors should own all five of these. That’s not diversification. That’s five different flavors of the same bet — that Bitcoin goes up and Strategy keeps paying its bills.

But I do think there are smart ways to use this menu.

If you’re bullish on Bitcoin and want income: STRK gives you 10.2% effective yield with a free embedded call option on MSTR. If Bitcoin goes parabolic and MSTR reaches $1,000, you participate. If it doesn’t, you collected 10% a year while you waited. That’s not a bad outcome either way.

If you want income with the most protection: STRF. Cumulative dividends, compounding penalty for missed payments, smallest drawdowns. This is the one I’d explain to my mom.

If you’re a monthly-income investor: STRC. Variable rate anchored near par, monthly payments, 11.5% current yield. The most predictable cash flow in the family.

If you’re a contrarian who likes discounts: STRD at $77 offers a 23% discount to par and a 13% effective yield. But understand why that discount exists before you call it a bargain.

The Risk Nobody Wants to Talk About

I’d be doing you a disservice if I didn’t say this plainly: every single one of these instruments — MSTR, STRK, STRF, STRD, STRC — is ultimately backed by one asset. Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin suffers a severe, prolonged crash, the common stock gets hammered. The preferred dividends become harder to fund. The conversion features become worthless. The capital structure that looks so elegant on the way up becomes very uncomfortable on the way down.

Strategy is expected to pay approximately $904 million in preferred dividends in 2026 alone. That money has to come from somewhere — either new capital raises or, eventually, selling Bitcoin. If the market closes its wallet and Bitcoin drops simultaneously, the math gets tight.

That’s not a prediction. It’s just arithmetic. And the behavioral trap is assuming that because something has worked spectacularly for two years, it will work spectacularly forever. We’ve all made that mistake. (I certainly have. I once held a position two months too long because “it always bounces back.” Narrator: it did not always bounce back.)

The Quick Reference

Here’s your cheat sheet. Screenshot this, print it, stick it to the fridge next to your kid’s soccer schedule:

Ticker	Yield	Cumulative?	Converts?	Frequency	Risk Level
MSTR	None	N/A	N/A	N/A	Highest
STRK	8% (~10.2% eff.)	Yes	Yes (10:1)	Quarterly	Moderate-High
STRF	10%	Yes (compounding)	No	Quarterly	Most Conservative
STRD	10% (~13% eff.)	No	No	Quarterly	Moderate
STRC	~11.5% (variable)	Yes	No	Monthly	Low Volatility

The Strategy ecosystem is one of the most interesting things happening in markets right now. Whether you love it or hate it, whether you think Saylor is a genius or a madman, the structure itself is worth understanding. Because this model — using multiple classes of preferred stock to fund a single-asset treasury — is not going to stay unique to one company for long.

Other companies are watching. And the next time someone launches a “Gold Treasury Company” or an “AI Treasury Company” with four tiers of preferred stock, you’ll already know how to read the menu.

Just don’t try to do it while watching the kids. Trust me on that one.

Jordan Blacc is a Contributing Writer for SFO Magazine, covering behavioral finance, ETF analysis, and the intersection of investing and everyday life.

I’ve seen this movie before.

Not on CNBC. Not in earnings calls. Not in the polished language of quarterly guidance or investor decks.

I saw it inside conference rooms in Northern Virginia—windowless, badge-locked rooms where access was controlled, conversations were measured, and billion-dollar decisions were dressed up in language soft enough to pass through public scrutiny. No one said war unless they absolutely had to. Instead, they said things like “capacity constraints,” “inventory pressure,” or my personal favorite—“supply chain adjustments.”

That’s how it always starts.

Because war, at least in that world, isn’t defined by explosions or headlines. It’s defined by depletion.

War doesn’t just break things. It empties warehouses. And when warehouses empty, Washington doesn’t panic. It procures.

The First Signal Isn’t the War—It’s the Shortage

Earlier this month, after U.S. strikes on Iran quietly drained portions of our munitions stockpiles, something happened that barely registered outside policy circles. The White House convened defense executives—quietly, deliberately, without spectacle.

No televised address. No urgent press briefings.

Just a number, circulating in the background like a rumor everyone important had already heard: $50 billion in potential supplemental defense funding.

To most people, that sounds like a reaction. A response to escalation. It isn’t. It’s a reload order.

I spent years watching how this system operates from the inside, and it follows a pattern so consistent it might as well be procedural. The moment inventory drops below a certain threshold—whether acknowledged publicly or not—the machine activates.

• Emergency funding requests begin to take shape.
• Production contracts accelerate, often under the justification of urgency.
• Foreign Military Sales approvals move forward with less resistance.
• And behind the scenes, capacity expansions—factories, lines, labor—start to scale.

None of this is chaotic. It’s structured. Predictable. Almost rehearsed. And by the time headlines catch up to what’s happening, the most important decisions have already been made.

The Contracts Are Already Telling the Story

You don’t need access to classified briefings to understand where this is going. You just need to read the contracts.

In July 2025, Lockheed Martin secured a $4.3 billion modification tied to JASSM and LRASM missile programs. On paper, it was an adjustment. In reality, it pushed the total value of that program to nearly $9.5 billion.

The same day—same day—RTX, the company still widely known as Raytheon, locked in up to $3.5 billion for AMRAAM missile production.

That kind of timing isn’t coincidence. It’s alignment.

Missiles. Air dominance. Long-range strike capability. This isn’t defensive positioning. It’s sustained conflict readiness, expressed through procurement.

And then there’s the backlog—the number that rarely makes headlines but tells you more than any press release ever will. RTX entered 2026 with $268 billion in total backlog, more than $100 billion of it tied directly to defense.

The Global Backdoor: Foreign Military Sales

If you want to hide war spending in plain sight, you don’t eliminate it. You rename it. You call it allied defense support.

The United States approved a potential $4.67 billion NASAMS missile system sale to Egypt, with RTX positioned as the prime contractor. At the same time, Tamir missile production ramped up for Israel. NASAMS deployments expanded across multiple regions. New production facilities came online in Arkansas.

Individually, each of these developments looks contained—technical, even routine. Collectively, they tell a different story.

This is how the system scales without drawing attention to itself. Not through sweeping announcements, but through distributed approvals. A contract here. A deployment there. A facility expansion that reads like local economic development instead of national defense strategy.

War abroad. Revenue at home.

The Industrial Surge Nobody Talks About

Lockheed and RTX dominate the headlines, but they’re only part of the picture. The real infrastructure—the foundation that makes sustained conflict possible—is being built deeper in the stack.

General Dynamics is expanding munitions production capacity. Northrop Grumman is doubling its solid rocket motor output—from 13,000 units annually to 25,000.

That’s not a short-term response. That’s a long-term commitment to throughput.

Because in this industry, you don’t double production capacity on speculation. You don’t invest at that scale unless demand is already understood—if not publicly, then internally. Contractually. Politically. Strategically.

Then Come the Trades

This is where the pattern shifts from industrial to personal.

Because while contracts are stacking, backlogs are swelling, and production is scaling, something else begins to surface—quietly, predictably, almost as an afterthought. Congressional stock disclosures.

Case by case, they seem insignificant. Taken together, they start to form a signal.

Consider Senator Markwayne Mullin. A sitting member of the Senate Armed Services Committee—a position that places him in direct proximity to defense policy, funding decisions, and strategic briefings. On December 29, 2025, he purchased shares of RTX, valued between $15,000 and $50,000. The disclosure didn’t become public until January 16, 2026.

Read that again, slowly: A lawmaker overseeing defense policy bought into a top missile contractor during a period of escalating global tension.

No law was broken. But if you think that timing is random, you haven’t been paying attention.

Then there’s Representative Gil Cisneros. His committees include Armed Services, Intelligence, and Special Operations—a level of overlap that places him even closer to the operational side of military activity. On January 9, 2026, he purchased shares of General Dynamics. The disclosure came 35 days later.

Again—entirely legal. But legality and coincidence are not the same thing.

The 45-Day Blind Spot

There’s a structural flaw embedded in this system—one that rarely gets discussed outside niche circles. Lawmakers have up to 45 days to disclose their trades.

In politics, that may sound reasonable. In markets, it’s an eternity.

Because within those 45 days, everything can happen. Contracts become public. Stocks move. Narratives form. Opportunities mature—and often disappear.

By the time you see the trade, you’re not early. You’re late.

The Pattern

You don’t need insider access to see it. You don’t need classified information or privileged briefings. You just need to line up the sequence:

1. Conflict escalates.
2. Stockpiles deplete.
3. Contracts surge.
4. Production expands.
5. Congressional trades appear.
6. The public catches up last.

I’ve traced this cycle across Ukraine. Across the Middle East. Across multiple administrations, with different rhetoric but identical mechanics. The names don’t change. Only the justification does.

What I’m Watching Now

So let me be specific. If this defense supercycle plays out the way the contracts suggest it will, here are the publicly traded companies positioned to benefit—and why each one matters in the reload economy.

Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) — The $9.5 billion JASSM/LRASM missile program tells you everything. Lockheed is the prime contractor for the missiles we just used and the missiles we need to replace. They also build the F-35, the backbone of allied air superiority. Every strike depletes their inventory. Every depletion triggers a replenishment order. At $268 per share with a 2.7% dividend yield, LMT is the blue-chip of the reload trade.

RTX Corporation (NYSE: RTX) — Formerly Raytheon. $268 billion in total backlog, $3.5 billion in new AMRAAM contracts, and the prime contractor on the $4.67 billion NASAMS sale to Egypt. RTX makes the missiles, the radar systems, and the air defense platforms that every allied nation is scrambling to acquire. Senator Mullin bought this one for a reason. Trading near $133 with a 2.1% yield.

Northrop Grumman (NYSE: NOC) — They’re doubling solid rocket motor production from 13,000 to 25,000 units per year. You don’t double capacity unless demand is already locked in. Northrop also builds the B-21 Raider stealth bomber and key components for virtually every missile system in the U.S. arsenal. Near $530 with a 1.6% yield.

General Dynamics (NYSE: GD) — Representative Cisneros bought this one while sitting on Armed Services, Intelligence, and Special Operations committees. GD is expanding munitions production capacity across multiple facilities. They also build the Abrams tank, Stryker vehicles, and nuclear submarines. Near $275 with a 2.1% yield.

L3Harris Technologies (NYSE: LHX) — The intelligence and electronic warfare layer. While the prime contractors build the hardware, L3Harris builds the sensors, communications systems, and ISR platforms that make precision strikes possible. They’re also a key supplier of night vision, tactical radios, and satellite systems. Near $220 with a 2.0% yield.

Palantir Technologies (NYSE: PLTR) — The data layer. Every missile needs targeting data. Every deployment needs logistics coordination. Every intelligence briefing needs pattern analysis. Palantir’s software sits inside the Pentagon, the CIA, and allied defense ministries worldwide. If the reload economy is the body, Palantir is the nervous system. Near $100—no dividend, but the growth trajectory speaks for itself.

And if you want the broad-basket approach without picking individual names, there’s iShares U.S. Aerospace & Defense ETF (BATS: ITA)—a single ticker that holds all of them. Near $155 with a 0.8% yield. It won’t give you the concentrated upside of an individual contractor, but it gives you the sector exposure without the single-stock risk.

Markets don’t absorb something like this all at once. They move in increments. They stair-step. Contract by contract. Disclosure by disclosure. Signal by signal. And right now, every signal is pointing in the same direction.

Final Thought: This Isn’t a War Trade

This is where most people get it wrong. They think this is about war. They chase headlines. They react to escalation. They trade the explosion.

But the people inside the system—the ones who understand how this actually works—they’re not trading the event. They’re trading what comes after.

The replenishment. The contracts. The backlog. The invoice.

And right now, those invoices are just starting to hit the books.

If you walked into my office on day one and told me you wanted to learn options trading, I wouldn’t hand you a playbook filled with strategies.

I’d take most of them away.

No iron condors. No strangles. No butterflies. None of the flashy structures people love to show off on social media.

Instead, I’d give you a constraint: three strategies. That’s it.

Not because the others don’t work—they absolutely do. But in my experience, traders don’t fail because they lack opportunity. They fail because they chase complexity before they understand context. They pile strategies on top of each other without ever learning why something works.

So I simplify everything down to environments.

Because markets, at their core, cycle through the same three emotional states over and over again: panic, calm, and indecision.

If you can recognize those states—and match the right structure to each—you don’t need a dozen strategies. You need discipline.

This is exactly how I teach it.

Panic: Learning to Sell Fear Instead of Joining It

One of the first lessons I try to drive home is this: markets don’t need to crash to create opportunity. They just need to make people uncomfortable.

I remember a week where the market sold off for three consecutive days. Nothing dramatic. No crisis headlines. Just steady, grinding red.

But that’s all it takes.

You could feel the shift. Traders who were confident earlier in the week suddenly started hedging. The tone changed. Fear crept in—not extreme fear, but enough to inflate option prices.

That’s where I step in.

We were watching SPY closely. After those three down days, volatility began to expand. The VIX pushed into the high teens, and implied volatility rank climbed above 50. That combination matters more to me than the price drop itself.

Because I’m not reacting to direction—I’m reacting to pricing.

That’s when I put on what I call the “fear harvester”: a bull put spread.

SPY was trading around $440. I sold the 430 put, roughly a 0.30 delta option, and bought protection down at 420. The spread was 45 days out, and I collected about $2.00 in premium on a $10-wide structure.

On paper, that trade looks unimpressive. Risk $8 to make $2. Most beginners hate that ratio.

But that’s because they’re thinking like gamblers.

At a 0.30 delta, there’s roughly a 70% probability that option expires worthless. And more importantly, I’m selling it when it’s overpriced—because fear is inflating the premium.

That’s the edge.

And here’s the part most people miss: the market didn’t need to rally for this trade to work.

It just needed to stop falling.

Over the next couple of weeks, that’s exactly what happened. The selling pressure eased. Volatility contracted. The premium I sold began to decay.

I closed the position for around $0.80.

No fireworks. No dramatic win. But clean, controlled profit.

That’s the shift I want beginners to internalize:

You’re not here to predict the market. You’re here to recognize when fear is overpriced—and position yourself as the seller.

Calm: Knowing When Not to Sell Premium

Now flip the script.

Same market. Different environment.

Instead of panic, we get calm. The slow grind higher. Low volume. No urgency. The kind of market that quietly drifts upward and puts traders to sleep.

This is where beginners make their second big mistake.

They keep doing the same thing that worked before—they sell premium.

And that’s exactly how they get run over.

In this environment, volatility collapses. The VIX dipped below 13. Implied volatility rank fell under 25. Options became cheap.

And when options are cheap, selling them stops being a high-probability edge.

It becomes exposure, which is why we call it stepping in front of a Steamroller.

So we don’t sell here.

We switch roles.

Instead of being the insurance company, we become the buyer.

I put on a bull call spread. Same 45-day structure, but now I’m paying for exposure rather than collecting premium.

SPY was around $450. I bought the 450 call (about a 0.40 delta) and sold the 465 call (around 0.20 delta). The spread cost about $4.00 for a $15-wide position.

Now my risk is defined. My upside is structured. And I’m positioned to benefit not just from price movement—but from volatility expansion.

That’s the part most traders underestimate.

A week later, we got a minor catalyst. Nothing major. Just enough to wake the market up.

Volatility ticked higher.

Even before SPY made a meaningful directional move, the value of that long call increased because volatility expanded. The spread widened faster than price alone would suggest.

I exited around $7.50.

Again, not a home run. But that’s not the point.

The point is alignment.

When options are cheap, you don’t sell them for pennies. You buy them—with structure, with defined risk, and with patience.

You wait like a sniper. And when the conditions shift, you’re already in position.

Indecision: Getting Paid When Nothing Happens

The third environment is the one that frustrates traders the most.

Because it feels like nothing is happening.

The market chops sideways. Breakouts fail. Dips get bought. Every move looks promising for about five minutes—and then disappears.

This is where directional traders struggle. Because there is no direction.

But there is still opportunity.

I remember a stretch where SPY was locked in a tight range for weeks. At the same time, a Federal Reserve meeting was approaching. Everyone knew it was coming, and no one wanted to take a strong position ahead of it.

That hesitation creates a very specific condition: time decay without commitment.

I set up a call calendar slightly above the current price. SPY was around $445. I bought a 90-day call at the 450 strike and sold a 30-day call at the same strike.

The trade cost about $3.50.

What I’ve done here is separate time.

The short-term option—the one I sold—decays quickly. The long-term option—the one I own—decays slowly.

That difference is where the profit comes from.

Over the next couple of weeks, the market did exactly what I expected: nothing.

No breakout. No breakdown. Just noise.

And every day that passed, the short call lost value faster than the long call.

By the time the short option approached expiration, it was nearly worthless. I bought it back for pennies while still holding the longer-dated call.

At that point, I had choices. I could sell another short-term call and continue the cycle, or I could close the trade.

I chose to close.

The spread that cost $3.50 was now worth about $5.20.

No prediction. No guesswork about the Fed. Just structure and patience.

That’s when this really clicked for me years ago:

You don’t always need movement to make money.

Sometimes you just need time—and the right position to let it work for you.

The Real Lesson Most Traders Miss

When I look at traders who struggle, it’s rarely because they chose the wrong strategy.

It’s because they chose the right strategy in the wrong environment.

They sell premium when volatility is cheap. They buy options when volatility is expensive. They chase direction in sideways markets.

That’s what causes the damage.

Not lack of intelligence. Not lack of effort. Just misalignment.

These three trades—selling a put spread in panic, buying a call spread in calm, and using a calendar in indecision—aren’t special because they’re complex.

They’re powerful because they force a question most traders skip:

That’s it.

One more thing I do before I call it a night: I place a GTC (Good ’Til Cancelled) limit order to close each position at 50% of maximum profit. That way, if implied volatility spikes at the opening bell—or the trade simply matures faster than expected—I’m happy to take profits automatically and reset for the next opportunity. You don’t need to babysit a well-structured trade. You just need an exit plan that works while you sleep.

I’ve told students this for years, and I mean it: if you truly master these three structures, you don’t need anything else.

Not because other strategies aren’t useful—but because you’ll already understand the only thing that actually matters.

How price, volatility, and time interact.

Once you see the market through that lens, it stops feeling chaotic.

And starts feeling… readable.

Albemarle Corporation (NYSE: ALB) is the world’s largest lithium producer, headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina. The company operates primarily through its Energy Storage segment (lithium for EV batteries and grid storage) and Specialties segment (bromine-based flame retardants and specialty chemicals). Albemarle controls operations at Chile’s Salar de Atacama—one of the richest lithium brine deposits on earth—and operates hard-rock lithium mines in Australia via the MARBL joint venture. The company is also developing the Kings Mountain spodumene mine in North Carolina, targeted for full-scale operations later in 2026.

After enduring a brutal “lithium winter” in 2024–2025 that saw lithium carbonate prices collapse from $80,000/tonne to under $10,000, Albemarle responded with aggressive cost-cutting: slashing capex by 65%, idling the high-cost Kemerton hydroxide plant in Australia, and divesting its Ketjen catalyst business for $670 million. The result? A return to positive free cash flow and a stock that has rallied over 240% from its 52-week low of $49.43.

This month’s S.W.O.T.T. analysis examines whether ALB’s recovery has legs—or whether the easy money has already been made.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. This analysis is for educational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always use proper risk management and position sizing.

April is one of the strongest months on the calendar for equities. Since 1928, the S&P 500 has posted an average April return of +0.88%—nearly double the all-month average of +0.47%. Over the last 20 years, April has closed green roughly 80% of the time. But the averages hide the real opportunity. The real money in April comes from understanding when and where the month’s seasonal forces are strongest.

Source: S&P 500 historical data, 1928–2025. April highlighted. Dashed line = all-month average.

This month, we’re spotlighting three data-backed seasonal trades that TradeMiner has flagged year after year. Each one has a clean trigger, a historical win rate above 75%, and a fundamental driver that explains why the pattern repeats.

Trade #1: The Tax Deadline Reversal

The Setup: Every year, millions of Americans liquidate investment positions in the first two weeks of April to cover tax obligations. Mutual fund redemptions spike. Cash flows out of equities and into the IRS. The result is a predictable dip in the first half of the month—followed by an equally predictable rebound once the deadline passes.

The Data:

• April 1–15: The S&P 500 has averaged a −0.2% return during the first two weeks of April, with positive odds of only 41%.
• April 16–30: After tax day, the S&P 500 has averaged +1.7%, closing positive 75% of the time.
• Single-week post-tax-day: From 1998 to 2022, the week immediately following April 15 averaged +0.83%, positive in 19 of 25 years—a 76% win rate.

Why It Works: Tax refund reinvestment and the kickoff of Q1 earnings season create a double catalyst in the second half of April. Banks like JPMorgan, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley report in mid-to-late April, and positive earnings surprises compound the post-deadline buying pressure.

The Trade: Stay flat or lightly short the broad market through April 15. Look for long entries in SPY, QQQ, or individual high-beta names on the first trading day after the tax deadline. Target a 10–14 day hold. Historical edge: strong.

Trade #2: The Energy Spring Rally

The Setup: April marks the beginning of the summer gasoline demand ramp. The EPA mandates a switchover to summer-blend reformulated gasoline every spring, which constrains refinery output and tightens supply. Simultaneously, consumer driving activity begins its seasonal increase toward the Memorial Day peak. Energy stocks follow the fuel.

The Data:

• XLE (Energy Select Sector SPDR): Average April return of +4.3% over the last 25 years—the best month of the year for the energy sector.
• RBOB Gasoline Futures: Seasonal lows typically occur in December; 50% of spring highs in the last 20 years have occurred in March or April.
• April 12 specifically has returned +2.35% above the S&P 500 benchmark over 20 years, positive in 15 of 20 periods (75% win rate).

Why It Works: This is a fundamental supply-demand story with a regulatory catalyst. The summer-blend switchover reduces refinery throughput at the exact moment driving demand starts climbing. Gasoline inventories draw down. Crack spreads widen. Energy producers, refiners, and integrated majors all benefit.

The Trade: Long XLE or individual energy majors (XOM, CVX, COP) with entry in late March or early April. Alternatively, futures traders can look at RBOB gasoline contracts for direct exposure. Hold through late April or into early May. The seasonal tailwind typically peaks around Memorial Day weekend.

Trade #3: Last Call Before “Sell in May”

The Setup: April is the final month of the Stock Market Almanac’s “Best Six Months” window (November through April). This is the most well-documented seasonal pattern in all of finance—confirmed across 70+ years of U.S. data, 36 of 37 countries studied globally, and as far back as 1694 in the UK.

The Data:

• November–April: The S&P 500 has averaged +7.2% since 1950.
• May–October: The same index has averaged just +2.1%—less than a third of the winter/spring return.
• The gap: 4–5 percentage points per year, sustained across seven decades.

Why It Works: Multiple forces converge: year-end bonus reinvestment in November/December, January effect small-cap buying, tax refund flows in February/March, and Q4 earnings optimism all pile into the November–April window. When May arrives, those catalysts evaporate. Volume declines. Volatility picks up. The “summer doldrums” are real, and they are measurable.

The Trade: April is your last chance to harvest the Best Six Months tailwind. Use late April to:

1. Take profits on positions opened during the November–March window.
2. Tighten trailing stops on remaining long positions.
3. Rotate defensive: Utilities (XLU), Consumer Staples (XLP), and Healthcare (XLV) historically hold up better during May–October.
4. Raise cash. The opportunity cost of sitting out the weakest six months is minimal; the risk reduction is significant.

April at a Glance

Trade	Vehicle	Entry Window	Win Rate	Avg. Return
Tax Deadline Reversal	SPY / QQQ	April 16–18	76%	+0.83% (1 wk) / +1.7% (2 wk)
Energy Spring Rally	XLE / XOM / CVX	Late March–early April	75%	+4.3% (month)
Sell in May Positioning	XLU / XLP / Cash	April 20–30	70+ yrs confirmed	+7.2% vs +2.1% (6-mo split)

How to Use TradeMiner

Each of these trades was identified using TradeMiner’s seasonal scanning engine, which backtests every calendar-based pattern across stocks, futures, and ETFs. If you want to find your own April setups—or scan ahead for May, June, and beyond—TradeMiner lets you filter by win rate, average return, holding period, and historical consistency. The seasonal charts on the following pages show the exact TradeMiner output for this month’s picks.

For a deeper dive into seasonal patterns, historical data, and monthly trading strategies, visit the Stock Market Almanac at stockmarketalmanac.com.

Past performance is not indicative of future results. Seasonal patterns are historical tendencies, not guarantees. Always use proper risk management and position sizing.